US retail sales stutter; Aussie businesses confident; China talks itself up; UST 10yr yield 2.40%; Oil price hostage to US-Iran deal confirmation; gold slips; NZ$1 = 67.1 US¢, TWI-5 = 71.6

Here’s my summary of the key issues over night that affect New Zealand, with news there is a deal between the US and Iran, finally finalised.

But first, American retail sales unexpectedly fell in June as households cut back on purchases of cars and a range of other goods, raising concerns their economy may be slowing again. Markets had expected +0.3% growth, but instead they got a -0.3% decline for the month. Perhaps reflecting this, small business optimism fell as well in a survey out overnight.

In Australia, the slowdown in China and other concerns about global growth have failed to dent business confidence there, according to the NAB survey for June. It shows a solid pick-up in both sentiment and conditions, one that is broad-based across most industry groups. A notable exception however is retail.

Later today, China will report its Q2 GDP and that is expected to be weaker than we have been used to hearing – less than a 7% annual rate. Whether that is a portent for their new growth track is up for debate; the Chinese leadership is certainly talking things up overnight. But the damage they did recently to their equity markets will be long-lasting.

In New York, the UST 10yr yield benchmark stumbled slightly following the weak retail sales data; it is currently up to 2.40%.

Oil markets are however inching higher. The US benchmark price is now just above US$53/barrel, and Brent crude is just above US$58/barrel. The long awaited US-Iran deal was agreed overnight to general applause – except in the US Congress and Israel. Confirmation by the US may be a stormy affair. Sudden output increases flooding markets also seems less likely.

The gold price is down again, now at US$1,154/oz as general risk levels fade.

The US dollar took a small hit from the retail data. We are range-bound against all other pairs. We start today lower at 67.1 US¢, unchanged at 90.1 AU¢, and marginally higher at 61 euro cents. The TWI-5 is still at 71.6.

If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here »

Daily exchange rates

<!–

var root_url = "http://www.interest.co.nz/charts-csv/";
var tabs_count="7";
var csvfiles_loc= ["/charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-usd.csv"," /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-aud.csv"," /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-twi.csv"," /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-yen.csv"," /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-yuan.csv"," /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-eur.csv"," /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-gbp.csv"];
var chart_title_arr= ["US dollar","Australian dollar","Trade weighted index","Japanese Yen","Chinese Yuan","Euro","British pound"];
var chart_subtitles_arr= ["Daily benchmark rate","Daily benchmark rate","Daily benchmark rate","Daily benchmark rate","Daily benchmark rate","Daily benchmark rate","Daily benchmark rate"];
var tab_titles_arr= ["US$","AU$","TWI","u00a5en","u00a5uan","u20acuro","GBP"];
var source_arr= ["RBNZ","RBNZ","RBNZ","RBNZ","RBNZ","RBNZ","RBNZ"];
var source_hyperlink_arr= ["8"];
var tabswidth="8";
var decimal_arr= ["4","4","4","2","2","4","4"];

// variable declaration
var xpad;
var padding_value=0;
var range_selector=0
var loc;
var updt;
var val_num;
var vi=0;
var max_val;
var x;

var finalAr = new Array();
for (var i = 0; i <= tabs_count; i++) {
finalAr[i] = new Array();
}
var flagAr = new Array();
for (var i = 0; i <= tabs_count; i++) {
flagAr[i] =[];
}
var yaxisAr = new Array();
for (var i = 0; i 536)
{
var b = arr.length – 536; // to get last 36 points
}
else if (arr.length < 536)
{
var b = 537 – arr.length;
}
else if(arr.length == 536)
{
var b=2;
}

// to generate the format for date representation in x axis

var timestamweek = 604800000;
var timestamday = 86400000;
var timestammonth30 = 2592000000;
var timestammonth31 = 2678400000;
var timestamyear = 31536000000;
var timestamquarterly = 7776000000;

for (var u=0;u<2;u++) {
arr[u] = parseLineCSV(arr[u]);
fomat= String(arr[u][0]);
var k=0;

do {
k++;
} while(fomat.charAt(k)!="-")
var k1 =k;

do {
k++;
} while(fomat.charAt(k)!="-")
var k2=k;

do {
k++;
} while(k<fomat.length)
var k3=k;

var dd= fomat.substring(0,k1);
var mm = fomat.substring(k1+1,k2);
var yy = "20"+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);
var yy1=fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);

// conversion of months into numerical form

//+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (mm == "Jan")
{
mm= "01";
}
else if (mm == "Feb")
{
mm= "02";
}

else if (mm == "Mar")
{
mm= "03";
}

else if (mm == "Apr")
{
mm= "04";
}

else if (mm == "May")
{
mm= "05";
}

else if (mm == "Jun")
{
mm= "06";
}

else if (mm == "Jul")
{
mm= "07";
}

else if (mm == " Aug")
{
mm= "08";
}

else if (mm == "Sep")
{
mm= "09";
}

else if (mm == "Oct")
{
mm= "10";
}

else if (mm == "Nov")
{
mm= "11";
}

else if (mm == "Dec")
{
mm= "12";
}

// +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

var date2 = mm+"/"+dd+"/"+yy;

if (u==0)
{
var timestam1 = Date.parse(date2);
}
else if(u==1)
{
var timestam2 = Date.parse(date2);
}
}
var timestamvar = (timestam2- timestam1);
var flagAR_count=0;
for (var i=2;i<arr.length;i++) {
flagAR_count++;
var tempAr = new Array();
var tempAr1 = new Array();
arr[i] = parseLineCSV(arr[i]);
if (arr[i]!='')
{

fomat= String(arr[i][0]);
replic=String(arr[i][0]);
var k=0;

do {
k++;
} while(fomat.charAt(k)!="-")
var k1 =k;

do {
k++;
} while(fomat.charAt(k)!="-")
var k2=k;

do {
k++;
} while(k<fomat.length)
var k3=k;

var dd= fomat.substring(0,k1);
var mm = fomat.substring(k1+1,k2);
var current_year=""+new Date().getFullYear();
var c_year=Number(current_year.substring(2,4));
var c_data=Number(''+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1));
if(c_data c_year)
{
var yy = “19”+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);
}
else if(c_data == c_year)
{
var yy = “20”+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);
}
// conversion of months into numerical form

//+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (mm == “Jan”)
{
mm= “01”;
}
else if (mm == “Feb”)
{
mm= “02”;
}

else if (mm == “Mar”)
{
mm= “03”;
}

else if (mm == “Apr”)
{
mm= “04”;
}

else if (mm == “May”)
{
mm= “05”;
}

else if (mm == “Jun”)
{
mm= “06”;
}

else if (mm == “Jul”)
{
mm= “07”;
}

else if (mm == “Aug”)
{
mm= “08”;
}

else if (mm == “Sep”)
{
mm= “09”;
}

else if (mm == “Oct”)
{
mm= “10”;
}

else if (mm == “Nov”)
{
mm= “11”;
}

else if (mm == “Dec”)
{
mm= “12”;
}
// +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

var date = mm+”/”+dd+”/”+yy;

var timestam_1 = Date.parse(date);
var timestam= timestam_1+86400000; //86400000 added to get correct timezone output from Date.parse
var time4 = new Date(timestam);
var Weeko = time4.getDay();
var dd2 = time4.getDate();
var mm2 = time4.getMonth();
var flag_y=arr[i][1];
var ahref_title=”Click here for full story”;
if(arr[i][2]) {
var url=arr[i][2];
var flag_date='{“x”:’+timestam+’, “title”:”  “,”text”:”Click here for Story!”}’;

flagAr[csvgen_counter].push(flag_date);
}
var yy2 = time4.getFullYear();
var yy3 = yy2+””;
var yy4= yy3.substring(2,4);
//++++++++++++++++++++++++this for days conversion++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (Weeko==1)
{
Weeko = “Mon”;
}

else if (Weeko==2)
{
Weeko = “Tue”;
}

else if (Weeko==3)
{
Weeko = “Wed”;
}

else if (Weeko==4)
{
Weeko = “Thu”;
}

else if (Weeko==5)
{
Weeko = “Fri”;
}

else if (Weeko==6)
{
Weeko = “Sat”;
}

else if (Weeko==0)
{
Weeko = “Sun”;
}

//+++++++++++++++++++++++this is for month conversion+++++

if (mm2==0)
{
mm2 = “Jan”;
}

else if (mm2==1)
{
mm2 = “Feb”;
}

else if (mm2==2)
{
mm2 = “Mar”;
}

else if (mm2==3)
{
mm2 = “Apr”;
}

else if (mm2==4)
{
mm2 = “May”;
}

else if (mm2==5)
{
mm2 = “Jun”;
}

else if (mm2==6)
{
mm2 = “Jul”;
}

else if (mm2==7)
{
mm2 = “Aug”;
}

else if (mm2==8)
{
mm2 = “Sep”;
}

else if (mm2==9)
{
mm2 = “Oct”;
}

else if (mm2==10)
{
mm2 = “Nov”;
}

else if (mm2==11)
{
mm2 = “Dec”;
}
//++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

//weekly
if ( timestamvar == timestamweek)
{
fomat2=dd2+”-“+mm2+”-“+yy4;
padding_value=timestamweek;
range_selector=2;
}

// Daily
else if ( timestamvar = timestamyear)
{
fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
padding_value=timestamyear;
range_selector=3;
}

//monthly
else if ((timestamvar <= timestammonth30)&&(timestamvar = timestamquarterly)
{
fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
padding_value=timestamquarterly;
range_selector=3;
}

else
{
fomat2=dd2+”-“+mm2+”-“+yy4;
padding_value=timestamday;
range_selector=3;
}

arr[i][0]= fomat2;
var decpad;
decpad = parseFloat(arr[i][1]);
arr[i][1] = decpad;

if(i==(arr.length-1))
{

// Functionality to get the last value

var xvalu=dd2+”-“+mm2+”-“+yy4;
var yvalu= String(arr[i][1]);
var xyvalu=”Latest value at “+xvalu+” is “+yvalu;
updt=”Updated on “+xvalu;
}

tempAr.push(timestam);
if(!arr[i][1])
{
arr[i][1]=null;
}
yaxisAr[csvgen_counter].push(arr[i][1]);
// tempAr1.push(timestam);
// tempAr2.push(tempAr1);
tempAr.push(arr[i][1]);
last_val=timestam;
finalAr[csvgen_counter].push(tempAr);
}
xpad=last_val+padding_value; //*****************to end up graph early//////
if(arr[i]== “”)
{
vi=arr.length-i;
arr.length=arr.length-vi;
i=arr.length-1;
fomat = replic;

var k=0;

do {
k++;
} while(fomat.charAt(k)!=”-“)
var k1 =k;

do {
k++;
} while(fomat.charAt(k)!=”-“)
var k2=k;

do {
k++;
} while(k<fomat.length)
var k3=k;

var dd= fomat.substring(0,k1);
var mm = fomat.substring(k1+1,k2);
var yy = "20"+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);

// conversion of months into numerical form

//+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (mm == "Jan")
{
mm= "01";
}
else if (mm == "Feb")
{
mm= "02";
}

else if (mm == "Mar")
{
mm= "03";
}

else if (mm == "Apr")
{
mm= "04";
}

else if (mm == "May")
{
mm= "05";
}

else if (mm == "Jun")
{
mm= "06";
}

else if (mm == "Jul")
{
mm= "07";
}

else if (mm == "Aug")
{
mm= "08";
}

else if (mm == "Sep")
{
mm= "09";
}

else if (mm == "Oct")
{
mm= "10";
}

else if (mm == "Nov")
{
mm= "11";
}

else if (mm == "Dec")
{
mm= "12";
}
// +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

var date = mm+"/"+dd+"/"+yy;
//here flagAr may be
var timestam = Date.parse(date);
var time4 = new Date(timestam);
var Weeko = time4.getDay();
var dd2 = time4.getDate();
var mm2 = time4.getMonth();

var yy2 = time4.getFullYear();
var yy3 = yy2+"";
var yy4= yy3.substring(2,4);
//++++++++++++++++++++++++this for days conversion++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (Weeko==1)
{
Weeko = "Mon";
}

else if (Weeko==2)
{
Weeko = "Tue";
}

else if (Weeko==3)
{
Weeko = "Wed";
}

else if (Weeko==4)
{
Weeko = "Thu";
}

else if (Weeko==5)
{
Weeko = "Fri";
}

else if (Weeko==6)
{
Weeko = "Sat";
}

else if (Weeko==0)
{
Weeko = "Sun";
}

//+++++++++++++++++++++++this is for month conversion+++++

if (mm2==0)
{
mm2 = "Jan";
}

else if (mm2==1)
{
mm2 = "Feb";
}

else if (mm2==2)
{
mm2 = "Mar";
}

else if (mm2==3)
{
mm2 = "Apr";
}

else if (mm2==4)
{
mm2 = "May";
}

else if (mm2==5)
{
mm2 = "Jun";
}

else if (mm2==6)
{
mm2 = "Jul";
}

else if (mm2==7)
{
mm2 = "Aug";
}

else if (mm2==8)
{
mm2 = "Sep";
}

else if (mm2==9)
{
mm2 = "Oct";
}

else if (mm2==10)
{
mm2 = "Nov";
}

else if (mm2==11)
{
mm2 = "Dec";
}
//++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

//weekly
if ( timestamvar == timestamweek)
{
fomat2=dd2+"-"+mm2+"-"+yy4;
}

// Daily
else if ( timestamvar = timestamyear)
{
fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
}

//monthly
else if ((timestamvar <= timestammonth30)&&(timestamvar = timestamquarterly)
{
fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
}

arr[i][0]= fomat2;
var decpad;

decpad = parseFloat(arr[i][1]);
//arr[i][1] = roundVal(decpad);
arr[i][1] = decpad;
if(i==(arr.length-1))
{

var xvalu=dd2+”-“+mm2+”-“+yy4;
var yvalu= String(arr[i][1]);
var xyvalu=”Latest value at “+xvalu+” is “+yvalu;
updt=”Updated on “+xvalu;
}
}

}
}

//other required functions

//chart configuration starts here

function getXMLHttpRequest(file) {

//var arrSignatures = [“MSXML2.XMLHTTP.5.0”, “MSXML2.XMLHTTP.4.0″,
//”MSXML2.XMLHTTP.3.0”, “MSXML2.XMLHTTP”,
//”Microsoft.XMLHTTP”];

//for (var i=0; i < arrSignatures.length; i++) {

try
{
var xmlhttp = new window.XMLHttpRequest();
xmlhttp.open("POST",file,false);
return xmlhttp;
}
catch(e)
{
error=e.message;
}

//}
throw new Error("MSXML is not installed on your system.");
}

function readCSV(locfile) {
// load a whole csv file, and then split it line by line
var req = new getXMLHttpRequest(locfile);
//req.open("POST",locfile,false);
req.send("");
return req.responseText.split(/n/g);
}

function parseLineCSV(lineCSV) {
// parse csv line by line into array
var CSV = new Array();

lineCSV = lineCSV.replace(/,/g," ,");

lineCSV = lineCSV.split(/,/g);

// This is continuing of 'split' issue in IE
// remove all trailing space in each field
for (var i=0;i<lineCSV.length;i++) {
lineCSV[i] = lineCSV[i].replace(/s*$/g,"");
}

lineCSV[lineCSV.length-1]=lineCSV[lineCSV.length-1].replace(/^s*|s*$/g,"");
var fstart = -1;

for (var i=0;i=0) {
for (var j=fstart+1;j<=i;j++) {
lineCSV[fstart]=lineCSV[fstart]+","+lineCSV[j];
lineCSV[j]="-DELETED-";

}
fstart=-1;
}
}
fstart = (lineCSV[i].match(/^"/)) ? i : fstart;
}

var j=0;

for (var i=0;i<lineCSV.length;i++) {
if (lineCSV[i]!="-DELETED-") {
CSV[j] = lineCSV[i];
j++;
}

}

return CSV;
}

function roundVal(val_num){
var dec = 2;
var result = Math.round(val_num*Math.pow(10,dec))/Math.pow(10,dec);
return result;
}

function setdecimalpoints(deca)
{
var deca1= deca;
var deca2= parseInt(deca);
if((deca1-deca2)!=0)
{
return 2;
}
else
{
return 0;
}
}
for(i=0;i

Charts loading…
Charts loading…
Charts loading…
Charts loading…
Charts loading…
Charts loading…
Charts loading…