US factories regain momentum; job growth questions; AU banks resist capital requirements; dairy prices fall hard; oil and gold up; bond yields lower; NZ$1 = 74.7 US¢, TWI = 79.8

Short headline: 
90 seconds at 9am: Dairy prices slump

Here's my summary of the key issues from over night that affect New Zealand, with news of another very sharp fall in dairy prices in the overnight auction.

But first, in the US payrolls processor ADP said 189,000 new jobs were created in March, fewer than 225,000 expected and creating doubt in the markets that this weekend's non-farm payrolls report will be a good one.

On the flip side, American manufacturing PMIs released overnight were quite positive. Both the ISM and the Markit reports show American factories are expanding solidly with improving trends. Momentum is building again.

In Australia, banks are fighting moves to make them hold more capital, the objective of which is to make them safer in a crisis.

The GlobalDairyTrade auction has produced a widespread slump in prices. They were down -10.8% in US dollar terms and -12.7% in New Zealand dollar terms.

The key WMP price was down -13.3%, skim milk powder prices were down -9.9%, butter lower by -7.6% and cheese down by -10.5%. 

These sharp falls come after an -8.8% drop just two weeks ago. Basically, prices have now retreated to where they were at the start of the year

Surprisingly, our currency hardly noticed. In fact, if anything, it has risen in the few hours after the dairy results were posted. This is probably because markets were expecting about a -10% fall which is what they got.

The shine is well and truly off the New Zealand dairy industry and it is now settling in for a more modest future, one that will need to absorb the new regulatory costs that have been imposed on it in the past few years, along with the higher debt levels being carried by more recent conversions. At the margins we could see some financial stress.

In New York, the UST 10yr yields slipped overnight to 1.87%. This was in contrast to a quiet and stable day yesterday for New Zealand swap rates.

The crude oil price has jumped in early trading today. The US price is up to US$50/barrel and Brent crude is at $57 a barrel. And this is despite record high crude storage in the US. However, American crude output fell last week for the first time since January.

The gold price also jumped and is now at US$1,208/oz.

The New Zealand dollar will start today pretty much unchanged from where we were at this time yesterday at 74.7 US¢, still very high against the Aussie at 98.1 AU¢, and the TWI is at 79.8.

If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »

Daily exchange rates

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var root_url=”http://www.interest.co.nz/charts-csv/” // left untouched for now
var tabs_count=”7″;
var csvfiles_loc= [“/charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-usd.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-aud.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-twi.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-yen.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-yuan.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-eur.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-gbp.csv”];
var chart_title_arr= [“US dollar”,”Australian dollar”,”Trade weighted index”,”Japanese Yen”,”Chinese Yuan”,”Euro”,”British pound”];
var chart_subtitles_arr= [“Daily benchmark rate”,”Daily benchmark rate”,”Daily benchmark rate”,”Daily benchmark rate”,”Daily benchmark rate”,”Daily benchmark rate”,”Daily benchmark rate”];
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var yaxisAr = new Array();
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else if (arr.length < 536)
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{
var b=2;
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// to generate the format for date representation in x axis

var timestamweek = 604800000;
var timestamday = 86400000;
var timestammonth30 = 2592000000;
var timestammonth31 = 2678400000;
var timestamyear = 31536000000;
var timestamquarterly = 7776000000;

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do {
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do {
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var k3=k;

var dd= fomat.substring(0,k1);
var mm = fomat.substring(k1+1,k2);
var yy = "20"+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);
var yy1=fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);

// conversion of months into numerical form

//+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (mm == "Jan")
{
mm= "01";
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else if (mm == "Feb")
{
mm= "02";
}

else if (mm == "Mar")
{
mm= "03";
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else if (mm == "Apr")
{
mm= "04";
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{
mm= "05";
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mm= "06";
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mm= "07";
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else if (mm == " Aug")
{
mm= "08";
}

else if (mm == "Sep")
{
mm= "09";
}

else if (mm == "Oct")
{
mm= "10";
}

else if (mm == "Nov")
{
mm= "11";
}

else if (mm == "Dec")
{
mm= "12";
}

// +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

var date2 = mm+"/"+dd+"/"+yy;

if (u==0)
{
var timestam1 = Date.parse(date2);
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{
var timestam2 = Date.parse(date2);
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}
var timestamvar = (timestam2- timestam1);
var flagAR_count=0;
for (var i=2;i<arr.length;i++) {
flagAR_count++;
var tempAr = new Array();
var tempAr1 = new Array();
arr[i] = parseLineCSV(arr[i]);
//alert("this is arr[i]="+arr[i]);
if (arr[i]!='')
{

fomat= String(arr[i][0]);
replic=String(arr[i][0]);
//alert("this is the value fomat first cond= "+ fomat);
var k=0;

do {
k++;
} while(fomat.charAt(k)!="-")
var k1 =k;

do {
k++;
} while(fomat.charAt(k)!="-")
var k2=k;

do {
k++;
} while(k<fomat.length)
var k3=k;

var dd= fomat.substring(0,k1);
var mm = fomat.substring(k1+1,k2);
var current_year=""+new Date().getFullYear();
var c_year=Number(current_year.substring(2,4));
var c_data=Number(''+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1));
if(c_data c_year)
{
var yy = “19”+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);
}
else if(c_data == c_year)
{
var yy = “20”+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);
}
// conversion of months into numerical form

//+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (mm == “Jan”)
{
mm= “01”;
}
else if (mm == “Feb”)
{
mm= “02”;
}

else if (mm == “Mar”)
{
mm= “03”;
}

else if (mm == “Apr”)
{
mm= “04”;
}

else if (mm == “May”)
{
mm= “05”;
}

else if (mm == “Jun”)
{
mm= “06”;
}

else if (mm == “Jul”)
{
mm= “07”;
}

else if (mm == “Aug”)
{
mm= “08”;
}

else if (mm == “Sep”)
{
mm= “09”;
}

else if (mm == “Oct”)
{
mm= “10”;
}

else if (mm == “Nov”)
{
mm= “11”;
}

else if (mm == “Dec”)
{
mm= “12”;
}
// +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

var date = mm+”/”+dd+”/”+yy;
//alert(date);

//alert(flagAr[csvgen_counter]);
//alert(“this is flagAr”+flagAr);

var timestam_1 = Date.parse(date);
var timestam= timestam_1+86400000; //86400000 added to get correct timezone output from Date.parse
var time4 = new Date(timestam);
var Weeko = time4.getDay();
var dd2 = time4.getDate();
var mm2 = time4.getMonth();
var flag_y=arr[i][1];
var ahref_title=”Click here for full story”;
// var url= arr[i][2];
//var url=”http://www.nzherald.co.nz”;
//var flag_date='{“x”: “Date.UTC(‘+yy+’,’+mm2+’,’+dd2+’)”, “y”:’flag_y’, “title”: “On series”}’;
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if(arr[i][2])
{
var url=arr[i][2];
var flag_date='{“x”:’+timestam+’, “title”:”  “,”text”:”Click here for Story!“}’;

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//var flag_date=”{x:Date.UTC(“+yy+”,”+mm2+”,”+dd2+”), title:’On series’}”;
flagAr[csvgen_counter].push(flag_date);
}
var yy2 = time4.getFullYear();
var yy3 = yy2+””;
var yy4= yy3.substring(2,4);
//++++++++++++++++++++++++this for days conversion++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
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Weeko = “Mon”;
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Weeko = “Tue”;
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{
Weeko = “Wed”;
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{
Weeko = “Thu”;
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Weeko = “Fri”;
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else if (Weeko==6)
{
Weeko = “Sat”;
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Weeko = “Sun”;
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//+++++++++++++++++++++++this is for month conversion+++++

if (mm2==0)
{
mm2 = “Jan”;
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{
mm2 = “Feb”;
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else if (mm2==2)
{
mm2 = “Mar”;
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else if (mm2==3)
{
mm2 = “Apr”;
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{
mm2 = “May”;
}

else if (mm2==5)
{
mm2 = “Jun”;
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else if (mm2==6)
{
mm2 = “Jul”;
}

else if (mm2==7)
{
mm2 = “Aug”;
}

else if (mm2==8)
{
mm2 = “Sep”;
}

else if (mm2==9)
{
mm2 = “Oct”;
}

else if (mm2==10)
{
mm2 = “Nov”;
}

else if (mm2==11)
{
mm2 = “Dec”;
}
//++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

//weekly
if ( timestamvar == timestamweek)
{
fomat2=dd2+”-“+mm2+”-“+yy4;
padding_value=timestamweek;
range_selector=2;
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// Daily
else if ( timestamvar = timestamyear)
{
fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
padding_value=timestamyear;
range_selector=3;
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{
fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
padding_value=timestamquarterly;
range_selector=3;
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{
fomat2=dd2+”-“+mm2+”-“+yy4;
padding_value=timestamday;
range_selector=3;
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arr[i][1] = decpad;

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{

// Functionality to get the last value

var xvalu=dd2+”-“+mm2+”-“+yy4;
var yvalu= String(arr[i][1]);
var xyvalu=”Latest value at “+xvalu+” is “+yvalu;
updt=”Updated on “+xvalu;
//alert(“this is updt= “+updt);
}

tempAr.push(timestam);
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arr[i][1]=null;
}
yaxisAr[csvgen_counter].push(arr[i][1]);
// tempAr1.push(timestam);
// tempAr2.push(tempAr1);
tempAr.push(arr[i][1]);
last_val=timestam;
finalAr[csvgen_counter].push(tempAr);
}
xpad=last_val+padding_value; //*****************to end up graph early//////
//alert(finalAr[csvgen_counter]);
if(arr[i]== “”)
{
vi=arr.length-i;
arr.length=arr.length-vi;
i=arr.length-1;
fomat = replic;

var k=0;

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} while(fomat.charAt(k)!=”-“)
var k1 =k;

do {
k++;
} while(fomat.charAt(k)!=”-“)
var k2=k;

do {
k++;
} while(k<fomat.length)
var k3=k;

var dd= fomat.substring(0,k1);
var mm = fomat.substring(k1+1,k2);
var yy = "20"+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);

// conversion of months into numerical form

//+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (mm == "Jan")
{
mm= "01";
}
else if (mm == "Feb")
{
mm= "02";
}

else if (mm == "Mar")
{
mm= "03";
}

else if (mm == "Apr")
{
mm= "04";
}

else if (mm == "May")
{
mm= "05";
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else if (mm == "Jun")
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mm= "06";
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else if (mm == "Jul")
{
mm= "07";
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else if (mm == "Aug")
{
mm= "08";
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else if (mm == "Sep")
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mm= "09";
}

else if (mm == "Oct")
{
mm= "10";
}

else if (mm == "Nov")
{
mm= "11";
}

else if (mm == "Dec")
{
mm= "12";
}
// +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

var date = mm+"/"+dd+"/"+yy;
//here flagAr may be
var timestam = Date.parse(date);
var time4 = new Date(timestam);
var Weeko = time4.getDay();
var dd2 = time4.getDate();
var mm2 = time4.getMonth();

var yy2 = time4.getFullYear();
var yy3 = yy2+"";
var yy4= yy3.substring(2,4);
//++++++++++++++++++++++++this for days conversion++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (Weeko==1)
{
Weeko = "Mon";
}

else if (Weeko==2)
{
Weeko = "Tue";
}

else if (Weeko==3)
{
Weeko = "Wed";
}

else if (Weeko==4)
{
Weeko = "Thu";
}

else if (Weeko==5)
{
Weeko = "Fri";
}

else if (Weeko==6)
{
Weeko = "Sat";
}

else if (Weeko==0)
{
Weeko = "Sun";
}

//+++++++++++++++++++++++this is for month conversion+++++

if (mm2==0)
{
mm2 = "Jan";
}

else if (mm2==1)
{
mm2 = "Feb";
}

else if (mm2==2)
{
mm2 = "Mar";
}

else if (mm2==3)
{
mm2 = "Apr";
}

else if (mm2==4)
{
mm2 = "May";
}

else if (mm2==5)
{
mm2 = "Jun";
}

else if (mm2==6)
{
mm2 = "Jul";
}

else if (mm2==7)
{
mm2 = "Aug";
}

else if (mm2==8)
{
mm2 = "Sep";
}

else if (mm2==9)
{
mm2 = "Oct";
}

else if (mm2==10)
{
mm2 = "Nov";
}

else if (mm2==11)
{
mm2 = "Dec";
}
//++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

//weekly
if ( timestamvar == timestamweek)
{
fomat2=dd2+"-"+mm2+"-"+yy4;
}

// Daily
else if ( timestamvar = timestamyear)
{
fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
}

//monthly
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{
fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
}

arr[i][0]= fomat2;
var decpad;

decpad = parseFloat(arr[i][1]);
//arr[i][1] = roundVal(decpad);
arr[i][1] = decpad;
if(i==(arr.length-1))
{

var xvalu=dd2+”-“+mm2+”-“+yy4;
var yvalu= String(arr[i][1]);
var xyvalu=”Latest value at “+xvalu+” is “+yvalu;
updt=”Updated on “+xvalu;
//alert(“this is updt= “+updt);
}
}

}
//alert(finalAr[csvgen_counter]);
}

//other required functions

//chart configuration starts here

function getXMLHttpRequest(file) {

//var arrSignatures = [“MSXML2.XMLHTTP.5.0”, “MSXML2.XMLHTTP.4.0″,
//”MSXML2.XMLHTTP.3.0”, “MSXML2.XMLHTTP”,
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//for (var i=0; i < arrSignatures.length; i++) {

try
{
var xmlhttp = new window.XMLHttpRequest();
xmlhttp.open("POST",file,false);
return xmlhttp;
}
catch(e)
{
error=e.message;
}

//}
throw new Error("MSXML is not installed on your system.");
}

function readCSV(locfile) {
// load a whole csv file, and then split it line by line
var req = new getXMLHttpRequest(locfile);
//req.open("POST",locfile,false);
req.send("");
//alert(req.responseText.split(/n/g));
return req.responseText.split(/n/g);
}

function parseLineCSV(lineCSV) {
// parse csv line by line into array
var CSV = new Array();

lineCSV = lineCSV.replace(/,/g," ,");

lineCSV = lineCSV.split(/,/g);

// This is continuing of 'split' issue in IE
// remove all trailing space in each field
for (var i=0;i<lineCSV.length;i++) {
lineCSV[i] = lineCSV[i].replace(/s*$/g,"");
}

lineCSV[lineCSV.length-1]=lineCSV[lineCSV.length-1].replace(/^s*|s*$/g,"");
var fstart = -1;

for (var i=0;i=0) {
for (var j=fstart+1;j<=i;j++) {
lineCSV[fstart]=lineCSV[fstart]+","+lineCSV[j];
lineCSV[j]="-DELETED-";

}
fstart=-1;
}
}
fstart = (lineCSV[i].match(/^"/)) ? i : fstart;
}

var j=0;

for (var i=0;i<lineCSV.length;i++) {
if (lineCSV[i]!="-DELETED-") {
CSV[j] = lineCSV[i];
j++;
}

}

return CSV;
}

function roundVal(val_num){
var dec = 2;
var result = Math.round(val_num*Math.pow(10,dec))/Math.pow(10,dec);
return result;
}

function setdecimalpoints(deca)
{
var deca1= deca;
var deca2= parseInt(deca);
if((deca1-deca2)!=0)
{
return 2;
}
else
{
return 0;
}
}
for(i=0;i<tabs_count;i++)
{
var loc=csvfiles_loc[i];
csvgenerata(loc);
//alert(flagAr[csvgen_counter]);
// var flag_test="["+flagAr[csvgen_counter]+"]";
// alert(flag_test);
}

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jQuery.noConflict();
(function($) {

//alert(xpad);
$.getJSON(‘http://www.highcharts.com/samples/data/jsonp.php?filename=aapl-c.json&callback=?’, function(data) {
var demo = $(“div#mySliderTabs”).sliderTabs({
transition: ‘fade’,
});
for (var i=1;i<=tabs_count;i++)
{
//alert(range_selector);
//alert(finalAr[i]);
var arr_size=finalAr[i].length;
var arr_midpos=Math.floor(arr_size / 2);
var arr_uppermedian_pos=Math.floor((arr_size + arr_midpos)/2);
//alert(arr_uppermedian_pos);
var arr_uppermedian_val=finalAr[i][arr_uppermedian_pos][0];
//alert(finalAr[i][arr_uppermedian_pos][0]);
var oneDay = 24*60*60*1000;
var window_selector=Math.floor((xpad-arr_uppermedian_val)/oneDay);
//alert(window_selector);
var j=i-1;
var flag_test=flagAr[i];
ymax_pad[i]=Math.max.apply(Math, yaxisAr[i]);
ymin_pad[i]=Math.min.apply(Math, yaxisAr[i]);
var margin_max=ymax_pad[i] * 0.1;
var margin_min=ymin_pad[i] * 0.1;
var y_max=ymax_pad[i] + margin_max;
var y_min=ymin_pad[i] – margin_min;

// var ymax=ymax_pad[i];
// var ymin=ymin_pad[i];
// var max_ticks=1000;
// var ticks_int=(ymax-ymin)/max_ticks;
// var ymax_padder=ymax_pad[i]+ticks_int;
// var ymin_padder=ymin_pad[i]-ticks_int;
//alert(ticks_int);
// alert("ymax_pad="+ymax_pad[i]);
// alert("ymax="+ymax);
// alert("ymin_pad="+ymin_pad[i]);
// alert("ymin="+ymin);
$('#container_'+i).highcharts('StockChart', {
chart: {
borderColor: '#000000',
height:363,
width:547,
marginLeft:-3,
marginTop:-43, //takes the chart area up
events: {
load: function() {
this.renderer.image('/sites/all/libraries/InterestHighcharts/images/Interest_logo.gif', 170, 75, 200, 80).add(); // add image(url, x, y, w, h)
}
},
zoomType:'x'
},

credits: {
itemStyle: {
cursor: 'pointer',
color: '#000000',
fontSize: '11px',
fontWeight:'bold'
},
position: {
align: 'right',
x:-50,
verticalAlign: 'bottom',
y:-35
},
text: 'Source:'+source_arr[j],
href: source_hyperlink_arr[j] },

exporting: {
enabled:false, //diables the print button
},

rangeSelector : {
selected : 0,
inputEnabled : false,
buttonTheme:{
display: 'none'
},
labelStyle:{
color: 'transparent'
},
buttons: [{
type: 'day',
count: window_selector,
}, {
type: 'week',
count: 3,
text: '3w'
}, {
type: 'month',
count: 6,
text: '6m'
}, {
type: 'ytd',
text: 'YTD'
}, {
type: 'year',
count: 1,
text: '1y'
}, {
type: 'all',
text: 'All'
}] },

navigator : {
adaptToUpdatedData: false,
xAxis:{
labels:{
enabled: false,
},
},
height: 50,
margin:-2,
series:{
lineColor:'#FF0000',
fillColor : '#FFFFFF'
}
},

title : {
text : chart_title_arr[j],
align: 'left',
x: 26,
verticalAlign: 'top',
//y: 50,
style: {
fontFamily:'Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif',
fontWeight:'bold'
}
},

subtitle : {
text : chart_subtitles_arr[j],
floating:true, //enable us to position the subtitle using 'x' and 'y'
align: 'center',
x:10,
y:15,
style: {
fontFamily:'Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif',
},
},

xAxis: {
type:'datetime',
lineWidth: 20,
// gridLineColor:'#FAFFFF',
// gridLineDashStyle:'Dot',
dateTimeLabelFormats: {
day: '%e-%b',
week: '%e-%b',
month: '%b-%y',
year: '%Y'
},
max:xpad,
events: {
setExtremes: function(e) {
if (e.trigger === "navigator") {
max=e.max+padding_value;
var x=this;
setTimeout(function(){
x.setExtremes(e.min,max); //chart xAxis
}, 4);
}
}
},
labels: {
style: {
color: 'black',
fontSize: '10px',
fontWeight:'bold',
fontFamily:'Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif'
},
y:3
}
},

yAxis: {
opposite: true,
startonTick: true,
endonTick: true,
labels: {
formatter: function() {
return Highcharts.numberFormat(this.value,setdecimalpoints(this.value));
},
style: {
color: 'black',
fontSize: '10px',
fontWeight:'normal'
},
y:-12
}
},

scrollbar: {
liveRedraw: false
},

series : [{
data : finalAr[i],
id: 'dataseries',
lineWidth:3,
pointPlacement: 'on',
zIndex:9999,
name : 'AAPL Stock Price',
shadow:{
width:3,
color:'#000000'
},
lineColor:'#FF0000',
type : 'area',
threshold : null,
tooltip : {
valueDecimals : decimal_arr[i],
useHTML: true,
headerFormat:'

{point.key}
‘,
pointFormat: ‘{point.y}
‘,
footerFormat:’

‘,
},
dataGrouping:{
dateTimeLabelFormats: {
hour:[‘%b-%e,%Y’, ‘%b-%e,%Y’, ”],
day: [‘%b-%e,%Y’, ‘%b-%e,%Y’, ‘-%b %e, %Y’],
week: [‘%e-%b,%Y’, ‘%e-%b,%Y’, ‘-%e %b, %Y’],
month:[‘%b-%y’, ‘%b-%y’, ‘-%b %y %Y’],
year: [‘%Y’, ‘%Y’, ‘-%Y’] }
},
fillColor: {
linearGradient: { x1: 0, y1: 0, x2: 0, y2: 1},
stops: [
[0, ‘#FFD8D5’],
[1, ‘rgba(255,255,255,0)’] ] },
fillOpacity:.01
},
{
type: ‘flags’,
useHTML: true,
name: ‘Flags on series’,
data: JSON.parse(“[“+flag_test+”]”),
onSeries: ‘dataseries’,
shape: “url(/sites/all/libraries/InterestHighcharts/images/balloon.jpg)”,
width : 5,
y: -33 //this is for flag
}]

});
}
});
//$(‘.series’).animate({height: 600, width: 800});

})(jQuery);

We update this chart twice each day, from the same data the drives our 'live-rates' charts.

Read full story