UK polls turn in EU's favour; financial markets jump; Hong Kong foreclosures rise; US truck index falls; UST 10yr yield 1.67%; oil up and gold down; NZ$1 = 71.1 US¢, TWI-5 = 74.1

Here’s my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news markets are moving higher nearly everywhere.

European stocks were up about +3% overnight and Wall Street is +1% higher this morning.

The bounce follows several polls over the weekend that suggested a very tight race in Britain’s EU vote, but that the Leave campaign may have lost momentum. We will likely see poll-induced volatility for the rest of the week.

In Hong Kong, their Monetary Authority is tracking foreclosures which have been rising and are likely to pick up pace as more owners default on high-interest loans from unregulated lenders in a weak economy,

In Australia, Fitch is reporting that car loan delinquencies are rising – off a low base, true – but still, they are back to levels not seen since 2010.

In the US, a key trucking index is showing some weakness, perhaps pointing to sluggish retail sales ahead.

And speaking of freight, it is probably worth noting that the expanded Panama Canal will open early next week, reducing the cost of international sea freight, which is already very low and falling. Advantage is about to shift to the very largest ships, leaving smaller capacity vessels facing an uneconomic future.

And here is a cautionary tale of what happens when you think laws of supply and demand don’t need to apply, and a political ego runs amok.

In New York, the benchmark UST 10yr yield extended its rises and this morning is up a further +6 bps to 1.67%. Overnight, those Brexit polls have risk premiums on investment grade corporate debt shrinking dramatically on both Wall Street and especially in Europe. We are seeing rising benchmark Government bond yields in key European markets as well.

Even the oil price is seeing gains today. The US benchmark is now just over US$49/barrel and the Brent benchmark just under US$51/barrel.

Gold is one commodity going the other way, now down a few dollars at US$1,286/oz.

And finally, the NZ dollar starts today stronger at 71.1 US¢, at 95.4 AU¢, and at 62.9 euro cents. The TWI-5 index is at 74.1.

If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Daily exchange rates

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