The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Wednesday, November 1, 2017

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens at 0.6841 (mid-rate) this morning.

Ahead of this morning’s quarterly employment report the NZD finds itself down against the majors. The GBP continues to push higher on expectations of a rate hike, while better than expected economic data has boosted both the EUR and USD.

Last night’s Eurostat third quarter, preliminary flash estimate showed the Euro-zone economy expanded at a faster pace than expected. Q3 gross domestic product increased by 0.6% q/q following a 0.7% rise in Q2. Economists had expected the economy to expand by 0.5%. A fall in energy prices is the main reason for a fall in core inflation according to the report. A preliminary estimate of Euro-zone inflation for the month of October eased to 1.4%, slightly below forecasts of an unchanged 1.5% result.

The USD is benefiting from an unexpected increase in the Chicago-area business activity, with the Chicago business barometer rising to to 66.2 in October, up from 65.2 in September. The barometer had been expected to pull back to 61.0.

Consumer Confidence in the US spiked to a near 17yr high with the Conference Board reporting its consumer confidence index rose to 125.9 in October from an upwardly revised 120.6 in September. Economists had forecast the index to edge up to 121 from September’s previously reported 119.8 reading.

This morning the NZD direction will be driven by our quarterly employment report, with expectations of an increase in employment of 0.8% with unemployment expected to dip to 4.7% down from 4.8% for the previous quarter.

Global equity markets are edging higher- Dow +0.07%, S&P 500 +0.14%, FTSE +0.07%, DAX +0.09%, CAC +0.18%, Nikkei 0.00%, Shanghai +0.07%.

Gold prices are down 0.7% trading at $1,268 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices have continued to edge higher, up 0.4% overnight currently sitting at $54.27 a barrel.

Current indicative rates:

NZDUSD    0.6841     -0.4%
NZDEUR    0.5871     -0.5%
NZDGBP    0.5151     -1.0%
NZDJPY      77.75       0.1%
NZDAUD    0.8934     -0.1%
NZDCAD    0.8825      0.1%
GBPNZD    1.9414      1.0%

Upcoming Data releases (NZST):

  • 10:45 – NZ Employment Report

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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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