The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Wednesday, August 2, 2017

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens at 0.7471 (mid-rate) this morning.

The NZD has edged lower against the majority of its rivals following a slight fall in dairy prices, while further direction for the NZD will be dictated by this morning’s quarterly employment report. . Economists are currently predicting employment to increase by 0.7% with the rate of unemployment expected to edge down 0.1% from 4.9% to 4.8%.

This morning’s Global Dairy Trade (GDT) resulted in a 1.6% fall in the index following a 0.2% increase at the previous auction a fortnight ago. Skim milk powder and butter prices fell 3% and 4.9% respectively while whole milk powder prices increased by 1.3% following a 0.3% fall previously.

Overnight US data releases again sent mixed messages to the market with personal income growth, and construction spending falling short of economists’ estimates, while manufacturing prices increased to 62 from 55, the biggest one-month increase this year. The fall in construction spending (down 1.3%) surprised economists who had forecast spending to increase by 0.4%.

The GBP received a boost overnight, helped higher after the manufacturing sector showed an unexpected pick-up in July. The Purchasing Managers’ Index spiked to 55.1 in July, higher than the 54.3 recorded in June and well ahead of the forecast 54.4 reading.

Crude oil prices have fallen after a report showing OPEC’s July crude oil exports increased by 210k Barrels a day to 32.9M barrels a day was released. The UAE led the increase, shipping 326K barrels per day more in July than in June.

Global equity markets are broadly higher- Dow +0.37%, S&P 500 +0.25%, FTSE +0.70%, DAX +1.10%, CAC +0.65%, Nikkei +0.30%, Shanghai +0.60%.

Gold prices have edged higher, up 0.3% trading at $1,272 an ounce .WTI Crude Oil prices have fallen, down 1.8% trading at $48.93 a barrel.

Current indicative rates:

NZDUSD       0.7471      -0.5%
NZDEUR       0.6331      -0.2%
NZDGBP       0.5656      -0.6%
NZDJPY         82.39       -0.5%
NZDAUD       0.9379      -0.1%
NZDCAD       0.9366       0.1%
GBPNZD       1.7680       0.6%

Upcoming Data releases (NZST):

  • 10:45 NZ Employment Report

 

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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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