The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Thursday, September 14, 2017

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens at 0.7235 (mid-rate) this morning.

The Kiwi has traded an 86 point range or 1.19% in the past 24 hours and opens 0.7% lower than yesterday’s open against the USD and CAD, steady with the EUR and Pound, and modestly lower against the Yen and Aussie.

U.S. producer prices rebounded in August, driven by a surge in the cost of gasoline, and there were also signs of a pickup in underlying producer inflation. The U.S. Labor Department said its Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2% last month after slipping 0.1% in July. In the 12 months through August, the PPI rose 2.4% after advancing 1.9% in July. Economists had forecast the PPI gaining 0.3% last month and accelerating 2.5% from a year ago.

The U.S. Budget Balance for September was -107.7 billion better than the -118.6 billion market consensus, but worse than the -42.9 billion in August. Total outlays were $334 billion and total receipts were $226 billion.

Estimates from the U.K. Labour Force Survey show that, between February to April 2017 and May to July 2017, the number of people in work increased, the number of unemployed people fell, and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) also fell.

In the U.K. there were 32.14 million people in work, 181k more than for February to April 2017 and 379k more than a year earlier. The U.K. employment rate was 75.3%, the highest since comparable records began in 1971. The U.K. unemployment rate fell to 4.3% better than the 4.4% anticipated and 4.4% from August. At 1.46 million people unemployed, there were 75k fewer than from Feb to Apr 2017 and 175k less than a year earlier.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in the Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.1%, both including and excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier, and in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.4%, both including and excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Global equity markets are mixed: Dow +0.08%, S&P500-0.03%, FTSE -0.28%, DAX +0.23%, CAC +0.16%, Nikkei +0.45%, Shanghai +0.14%.

Gold prices are down $10 or 0.8% currently trading at $1,321 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices have surged 2.3% higher currently trading at $49.33 a barrel.

Current indicative rates:

NZDUSD       0.7235      -0.7%
NZDEUR       0.6086       0.0%
NZDGBP       0.5479       0.0%
NZDJPY         80.01       -0.3%
NZDAUD       0.9065      -0.2%
NZDCAD       0.8816      -0.7%
GBPNZD       1.8245       0.0%

Upcoming Data releases (NZST):

  • 1:00pm – AUD – MI Inflation Expectations
  • 1:30pm – AUD – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
  • 2:00pm – CNY- Industrial Production y/y and Fixed Asset Investment
  • 2:00pm – CNY- Retail Sales y/y

 

 

 

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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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