The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Monday, July 31, 2017

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens at 0.7500 (mid-rate) this morning.

The NZDUSD pushed back above 0.7500 late on Friday with the USD continuing to struggle following the US Federal Reserve’s dovish monetary policy statement.

The US Commerce Department Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) report, showed economic activity expanded by 2.6% in the second quarter following a downwardly revised 1.2% increase in Q1. First quarter growth had previously been reported at 1.4% while the Q2 result fell in line with economists’ estimates.

Consumer sentiment in the US for the month of July was unexpectedly revised higher with the University of Michigan index recording a final reading of 93.4 slightly better than the preliminary reading of 93.1.

Inflation in Germany unexpectedly rose to a 3mth high in July with consumer prices increasing by 1.7% annually. Economists had expected to see prices edge down from June’s 1.6% increase to 1.5%.

Consumer confidence in the United Kingdom has continued to fall, with the Gfk index decreasing by 2pts to -12 in July. This is the lowest the index has been since immediately after the Brexit vote.

The domestic highlight for the NZD this week will be Wednesday’s employment report with economists currently expecting employment to increase by 0.7% with the unemployment rate to edge down from 4.9% to 4.8%.

Global equity markets closed out the week mixed – Dow +0.15%, S&P 500 -0.13%, FTSE -1.00%, DAX -0.40%, CAC 0.00%, Nikkei -0.60%, Shanghai +0.11%.

Gold prices edged higher on Friday closing out the week at $1,268 an ounce .WTI Crude Oil prices gained 1.4% on Friday pushing prices up to $49.71 a barrel for a weekly gain of 8.6%.

Current indicative rates:

NZDUSD       0.7500       0.1%
NZDEUR       0.6385      -0.4%
NZDGBP       0.5715      -0.2%
NZDJPY         83.01       -0.2%
NZDAUD       0.9395      -0.1%
NZDCAD       0.9335      -0.8%
GBPNZD       1.7497       0.2%


 

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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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