The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Friday, October 9, 2015

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens at 0.6660 (mid-rate) this morning.

The USD strengthened in the first half of the night then lost ground substantially after the release of the FOMC meeting minutes.

Earlier in the night, the US Unemployment claims were better that market consensus of 274k, coming in at 263k.

US Mortgage applications surged last week as homebuyers rushed to take advantage of slightly lower mortgage rates just before new federal rules kick in. Mortgage applications increased 25.5% from one week earlier.

However the release of the FOMC meeting at 7am this morning saw the kiwi rally from 0.6620 to a high just shy of 0.6700 before settling at today’s open.

The Fed meeting minutes showed the Fed Committee delayed a rate hike due to Global risks. Concerns over China’s slowdown and its potential to spill over to other economies “were likely to depress US net exports”.

The Fed was concerned about the higher level of the dollar, and stated that the time is near to raise rates, but appropriate to wait for now. The market’s view of this, is that it is still possible they may hike rates in 2015.

Bank of England left their cash rate at 0.5%; Shop prices in the UK fell 1.9% on year in September; U.K. industrial output rebounded at a faster-than-expected pace in August, driven by oil extraction and transport equipment, by 1% from July

The Bank of Japan refrained from adding more monetary stimulus by a vote of 8-1.

Germany’s industrial production declined at the fastest pace in 12 months in August, defying expectations for a modest increase; while France’s external trade deficit for August narrowed more-than-expected from a year ago as imports fell at a faster rate than exports

Global equity markets were mixed:  Dow +0.12%, S&P 500 -0.02%, FTSE +0.61%, DAX +0.23%, CAC +0.18%, Nikkei -0.99%, Hang Seng -0.75%, Shanghai +2.97%, 

Gold prices are up $2 at $1149 an ounce, WTI Crude Oil is up 3.6% currently trading at $49.55 a barrel.

Indicative mid-rate pricing:

  NZDUSD          0.6660       0.8%
  NZDEUR          0.5911       0.5%
  NZDGBP          0.4340       0.6%
  NZDJPY            79.97        0.9%
  NZDAUD          0.9182       0.1%
  NZDCAD          0.8670       0.4%


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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

Daily exchange rates

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