Roger J Kerr says the risk of medium to long term rates increasing is dependent upon US bond market movements, not the RBNZ or the NZ economy or our inflation

Short headline: 
RBNZ cannot hide from a strong economy

By Roger J Kerr

Some key 'take-outs' for those with interest rate risks from last week’s RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement and associated media conference:

– The New Zealand economy is far from dead (note forecasts of +3.5% GDP growth rates) and thus future inflation risks are also therefore far from dead.

– The current level of the OCR at 3.50% is "still expansionary", thus given the already robust growth outlook it is difficult to sustain an argument that a lower OCR is needed to help the economy deliver some growth. So bad news for the deflation doomsayers who were calling for OCR cuts last week.

– The RBNZ is appropriately "looking through" the plunge in oil prices and therefore is not basing its monetary policy settings off the very low current annual inflation rate (even though it is below the 1.00% bottom limit of the target range), however their job is to look forward at future expected economic and inflation conditions i.e. 12 to 18 month ahead.

– The RBNZ does however examine the second-round price changes emanating from the lower oil prices i.e. air-fares, freight charges  – "The most critical thing, how does wage and price setting behaviour change in response to lower oil prices?"

– "Positive output gap, strong employment growth, record migration trends and record labour market participation" – does not sound like an economy that requires lower interest rates and/or a lower currency value to get ahead.

– In respect to the official RBNZ 90-day interest rate track over the next two years, it needs to be remembered that it is not their forecast, but just the output from their model that is required to push inflation back to the target midpoint (i.e. they have little belief that the flat outrun will actually take place).

– The new norm for "neutral" monetary policy settings in New Zealand is now confirmed at an OCR of 4.5%.

While the risk of increases in short-term interest rates remains benign for the meantime, the risk of medium to long term rates increasing is dependent upon the US bond market movements, not the RBNZ or the NZ economy/inflation.

Daily swap rates

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var root_url=”http://www.interest.co.nz/charts-csv/” // left untouched for now
var tabs_count=”7″;
var csvfiles_loc= [“/charts-csv/chart_data/interestrates/swap-1yr.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/interestrates/swap-2yr.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/interestrates/swap-3yr.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/interestrates/swap-4yr.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/interestrates/swap-5yr.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/interestrates/swap-7yr.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/interestrates/swap-10yr.csv”];
var chart_title_arr= [“Swap rate”,”Swap rate”,”Swap rate”,”Swap rate”,”Swap rate”,”Swap rate”,”Swap rate”];
var chart_subtitles_arr= [“Opening daily rate”,”Opening daily rate”,”Opening daily rate”,”Opening daily rate”,”Opening daily rate”,”Opening daily rate”,”Opening daily rate”];
var tab_titles_arr= [“1 year %”,”2 years %”,”3 years %”,”4 years %”,”5 years %”,”7 years %”,”10 years %”];
var source_arr= [“Westpac”,”Westpac”,”Westpac”,”Westpac”,”Westpac”,”Westpac”,”Westpac”];
var source_hyperlink_arr= [“http://www.westpac.co.nz”,”http://www.westpac.co.nz”,”http://www.westpac.co.nz”,”http://www.westpac.co.nz”,”http://www.westpac.co.nz”,”http://www.westpac.co.nz”,”http://www.westpac.co.nz”];
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// to generate the format for date representation in x axis

var timestamweek = 604800000;
var timestamday = 86400000;
var timestammonth30 = 2592000000;
var timestammonth31 = 2678400000;
var timestamyear = 31536000000;
var timestamquarterly = 7776000000;

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//+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
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var dd= fomat.substring(0,k1);
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mm= “09”;
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mm= “10”;
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mm= “11”;
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//alert(date);

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//alert(“this is flagAr”+flagAr);

var timestam_1 = Date.parse(date);
var timestam= timestam_1+86400000; //86400000 added to get correct timezone output from Date.parse
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var dd2 = time4.getDate();
var mm2 = time4.getMonth();
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var ahref_title=”Click here for full story”;
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Weeko = “Wed”;
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mm2 = “Jan”;
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mm2 = “Feb”;
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mm2 = “Mar”;
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mm2 = “May”;
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mm2 = “Jun”;
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mm2 = “Jul”;
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mm2 = “Aug”;
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mm2 = “Sep”;
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mm2 = “Oct”;
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mm2 = “Nov”;
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mm2 = “Dec”;
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//++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

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fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
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range_selector=3;
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fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
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yaxisAr[csvgen_counter].push(arr[i][1]);
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last_val=timestam;
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xpad=last_val+padding_value; //*****************to end up graph early//////
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var dd= fomat.substring(0,k1);
var mm = fomat.substring(k1+1,k2);
var yy = "20"+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);

// conversion of months into numerical form

//+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (mm == "Jan")
{
mm= "01";
}
else if (mm == "Feb")
{
mm= "02";
}

else if (mm == "Mar")
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mm= "03";
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else if (mm == "Apr")
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mm= "04";
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else if (mm == "May")
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mm= "05";
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mm= "06";
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mm= "07";
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else if (mm == "Aug")
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mm= "08";
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else if (mm == "Sep")
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mm= "09";
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else if (mm == "Oct")
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mm= "10";
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else if (mm == "Nov")
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mm= "11";
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else if (mm == "Dec")
{
mm= "12";
}
// +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

var date = mm+"/"+dd+"/"+yy;
//here flagAr may be
var timestam = Date.parse(date);
var time4 = new Date(timestam);
var Weeko = time4.getDay();
var dd2 = time4.getDate();
var mm2 = time4.getMonth();

var yy2 = time4.getFullYear();
var yy3 = yy2+"";
var yy4= yy3.substring(2,4);
//++++++++++++++++++++++++this for days conversion++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (Weeko==1)
{
Weeko = "Mon";
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{
Weeko = "Tue";
}

else if (Weeko==3)
{
Weeko = "Wed";
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Weeko = "Thu";
}

else if (Weeko==5)
{
Weeko = "Fri";
}

else if (Weeko==6)
{
Weeko = "Sat";
}

else if (Weeko==0)
{
Weeko = "Sun";
}

//+++++++++++++++++++++++this is for month conversion+++++

if (mm2==0)
{
mm2 = "Jan";
}

else if (mm2==1)
{
mm2 = "Feb";
}

else if (mm2==2)
{
mm2 = "Mar";
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else if (mm2==3)
{
mm2 = "Apr";
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else if (mm2==4)
{
mm2 = "May";
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else if (mm2==5)
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mm2 = "Jun";
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else if (mm2==6)
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mm2 = "Jul";
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else if (mm2==7)
{
mm2 = "Aug";
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else if (mm2==8)
{
mm2 = "Sep";
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else if (mm2==9)
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mm2 = "Oct";
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else if (mm2==10)
{
mm2 = "Nov";
}

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{
mm2 = "Dec";
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fomat2=dd2+"-"+mm2+"-"+yy4;
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fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
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fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
}

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var decpad;

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arr[i][1] = decpad;
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function getXMLHttpRequest(file) {

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var xmlhttp = new window.XMLHttpRequest();
xmlhttp.open("POST",file,false);
return xmlhttp;
}
catch(e)
{
error=e.message;
}

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throw new Error("MSXML is not installed on your system.");
}

function readCSV(locfile) {
// load a whole csv file, and then split it line by line
var req = new getXMLHttpRequest(locfile);
//req.open("POST",locfile,false);
req.send("");
//alert(req.responseText.split(/n/g));
return req.responseText.split(/n/g);
}

function parseLineCSV(lineCSV) {
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var CSV = new Array();

lineCSV = lineCSV.replace(/,/g," ,");

lineCSV = lineCSV.split(/,/g);

// This is continuing of 'split' issue in IE
// remove all trailing space in each field
for (var i=0;i<lineCSV.length;i++) {
lineCSV[i] = lineCSV[i].replace(/s*$/g,"");
}

lineCSV[lineCSV.length-1]=lineCSV[lineCSV.length-1].replace(/^s*|s*$/g,"");
var fstart = -1;

for (var i=0;i=0) {
for (var j=fstart+1;j<=i;j++) {
lineCSV[fstart]=lineCSV[fstart]+","+lineCSV[j];
lineCSV[j]="-DELETED-";

}
fstart=-1;
}
}
fstart = (lineCSV[i].match(/^"/)) ? i : fstart;
}

var j=0;

for (var i=0;i<lineCSV.length;i++) {
if (lineCSV[i]!="-DELETED-") {
CSV[j] = lineCSV[i];
j++;
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}

return CSV;
}

function roundVal(val_num){
var dec = 2;
var result = Math.round(val_num*Math.pow(10,dec))/Math.pow(10,dec);
return result;
}

function setdecimalpoints(deca)
{
var deca1= deca;
var deca2= parseInt(deca);
if((deca1-deca2)!=0)
{
return 2;
}
else
{
return 0;
}
}
for(i=0;i<tabs_count;i++)
{
var loc=csvfiles_loc[i];
csvgenerata(loc);
//alert(flagAr[csvgen_counter]);
// var flag_test="["+flagAr[csvgen_counter]+"]";
// alert(flag_test);
}

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jQuery.noConflict();
(function($) {

//alert(xpad);
$.getJSON(‘http://www.highcharts.com/samples/data/jsonp.php?filename=aapl-c.json&callback=?’, function(data) {
var demo = $(“div#mySliderTabs”).sliderTabs({
transition: ‘fade’,
});
for (var i=1;i<=tabs_count;i++)
{
//alert(range_selector);
//alert(finalAr[i]);
var arr_size=finalAr[i].length;
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var arr_uppermedian_pos=Math.floor((arr_size + arr_midpos)/2);
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var arr_uppermedian_val=finalAr[i][arr_uppermedian_pos][0];
//alert(finalAr[i][arr_uppermedian_pos][0]);
var oneDay = 24*60*60*1000;
var window_selector=Math.floor((xpad-arr_uppermedian_val)/oneDay);
//alert(window_selector);
var j=i-1;
var flag_test=flagAr[i];
ymax_pad[i]=Math.max.apply(Math, yaxisAr[i]);
ymin_pad[i]=Math.min.apply(Math, yaxisAr[i]);
var margin_max=ymax_pad[i] * 0.1;
var margin_min=ymin_pad[i] * 0.1;
var y_max=ymax_pad[i] + margin_max;
var y_min=ymin_pad[i] – margin_min;

// var ymax=ymax_pad[i];
// var ymin=ymin_pad[i];
// var max_ticks=1000;
// var ticks_int=(ymax-ymin)/max_ticks;
// var ymax_padder=ymax_pad[i]+ticks_int;
// var ymin_padder=ymin_pad[i]-ticks_int;
//alert(ticks_int);
// alert("ymax_pad="+ymax_pad[i]);
// alert("ymax="+ymax);
// alert("ymin_pad="+ymin_pad[i]);
// alert("ymin="+ymin);
$('#container_'+i).highcharts('StockChart', {
chart: {
borderColor: '#000000',
height:363,
width:547,
marginLeft:-3,
marginTop:-43, //takes the chart area up
events: {
load: function() {
this.renderer.image('/sites/all/libraries/InterestHighcharts/images/Interest_logo.gif', 170, 75, 200, 80).add(); // add image(url, x, y, w, h)
}
},
zoomType:'x'
},

credits: {
itemStyle: {
cursor: 'pointer',
color: '#000000',
fontSize: '11px',
fontWeight:'bold'
},
position: {
align: 'right',
x:-50,
verticalAlign: 'bottom',
y:-35
},
text: 'Source:'+source_arr[j],
href: source_hyperlink_arr[j] },

exporting: {
enabled:false, //diables the print button
},

rangeSelector : {
selected : 0,
inputEnabled : false,
buttonTheme:{
display: 'none'
},
labelStyle:{
color: 'transparent'
},
buttons: [{
type: 'day',
count: window_selector,
}, {
type: 'week',
count: 3,
text: '3w'
}, {
type: 'month',
count: 6,
text: '6m'
}, {
type: 'ytd',
text: 'YTD'
}, {
type: 'year',
count: 1,
text: '1y'
}, {
type: 'all',
text: 'All'
}] },

navigator : {
adaptToUpdatedData: false,
xAxis:{
labels:{
enabled: false,
},
},
height: 50,
margin:-2,
series:{
lineColor:'#FF0000',
fillColor : '#FFFFFF'
}
},

title : {
text : chart_title_arr[j],
align: 'left',
x: 26,
verticalAlign: 'top',
//y: 50,
style: {
fontFamily:'Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif',
fontWeight:'bold'
}
},

subtitle : {
text : chart_subtitles_arr[j],
floating:true, //enable us to position the subtitle using 'x' and 'y'
align: 'center',
x:10,
y:15,
style: {
fontFamily:'Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif',
},
},

xAxis: {
type:'datetime',
lineWidth: 20,
// gridLineColor:'#FAFFFF',
// gridLineDashStyle:'Dot',
dateTimeLabelFormats: {
day: '%e-%b',
week: '%e-%b',
month: '%b-%y',
year: '%Y'
},
max:xpad,
events: {
setExtremes: function(e) {
if (e.trigger === "navigator") {
max=e.max+padding_value;
var x=this;
setTimeout(function(){
x.setExtremes(e.min,max); //chart xAxis
}, 4);
}
}
},
labels: {
style: {
color: 'black',
fontSize: '10px',
fontWeight:'bold',
fontFamily:'Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif'
},
y:3
}
},

yAxis: {
opposite: true,
startonTick: true,
endonTick: true,
labels: {
formatter: function() {
return Highcharts.numberFormat(this.value,setdecimalpoints(this.value));
},
style: {
color: 'black',
fontSize: '10px',
fontWeight:'normal'
},
y:-12
}
},

scrollbar: {
liveRedraw: false
},

series : [{
data : finalAr[i],
id: 'dataseries',
lineWidth:3,
pointPlacement: 'on',
zIndex:9999,
name : 'AAPL Stock Price',
shadow:{
width:3,
color:'#000000'
},
lineColor:'#FF0000',
type : 'area',
threshold : null,
tooltip : {
valueDecimals : decimal_arr[i],
useHTML: true,
headerFormat:'

{point.key}
‘,
pointFormat: ‘{point.y}
‘,
footerFormat:’

‘,
},
dataGrouping:{
dateTimeLabelFormats: {
hour:[‘%b-%e,%Y’, ‘%b-%e,%Y’, ”],
day: [‘%b-%e,%Y’, ‘%b-%e,%Y’, ‘-%b %e, %Y’],
week: [‘%e-%b,%Y’, ‘%e-%b,%Y’, ‘-%e %b, %Y’],
month:[‘%b-%y’, ‘%b-%y’, ‘-%b %y %Y’],
year: [‘%Y’, ‘%Y’, ‘-%Y’] }
},
fillColor: {
linearGradient: { x1: 0, y1: 0, x2: 0, y2: 1},
stops: [
[0, ‘#FFD8D5’],
[1, ‘rgba(255,255,255,0)’] ] },
fillOpacity:.01
},
{
type: ‘flags’,
useHTML: true,
name: ‘Flags on series’,
data: JSON.parse(“[“+flag_test+”]”),
onSeries: ‘dataseries’,
shape: “url(/sites/all/libraries/InterestHighcharts/images/balloon.jpg)”,
width : 5,
y: -33 //this is for flag
}]

});
}
});
//$(‘.series’).animate({height: 600, width: 800});

})(jQuery);

These are start-of-day swap rates tracked and reported by a major bank.

Read full story

 

———————————————————–

Roger J Kerr is a partner at PwC. He specialises in fixed interest securities and is a commentator on economics and markets. More commentary and useful information on fixed interest investing can be found at rogeradvice.com