Putin warns of "serious consequences after another plane shot down; oil price jumps 3% and commodity linked currencies rise

By Kymberly Martin

Over the past 24-hours the AUD has been the best performer and the GBP the worst, against a slightly softer USD.

There was a notable 3.0% rebound in the WTI oil price overnight.

Tension in the middle-east increased after Turkey shot down a Russian war plane near the border with Syria. President Putin warned of “serious consequences”.

The broader CRB global commodity index also rose around 1.3%, helping support the likes of the CAD and AUD.

The AUD also experienced a burst of volatility around comments in a speech from RBA Governor Stevens last night. He said; “The effects of a decline in the exchange rate are proving a bit slow to come through…On this basis, the board concluded that inflation would not be a barrier to further easing of monetary policy, should that be useful to support demand.”

But this was largely reiterating the central bank’s recent policy statement. He was also reported as saying that the market should “chill out” and reassess the data after Christmas, with respect to the need for further rate cuts. The AUD/USD sits somewhat higher, at 0.7240 this morning.

The GBP was the weakest currency overnight. CBI retail volume sales data for Nov was very disappointing, although the series is pretty volatile.

The GBP/USD has traded down from 1.5150 last evening to sit around 1.5070 currently.

The NZD/USD has continued to trade a relatively tight range over the past 24-hours, but has pushed higher in the early hours of this morning, to trade at 0.6540 currently.

Support has once again been found just above the 0.6500 level. Resistance will likely be encountered on any push toward 0.6600.

On the crosses, the NZD/GBP has strengthened overnight in the backdrop of a soft GBP. From 0.4310 the NZD/GBP now trades at 0.4340.

The NZD/AUD experienced a bout of volatility around the headlines from the RBA Governor’s speech. But after a short-lived spike higher, the NZD/AUD has continued its downward path, to sit at 0.9030 this morning. Support will likely be encountered at the 0.9000 level.

Tonight there is another RBA speech to look out for. This time RBA’s Debelle will speak at a FX Week conference in London. It is once again fairly quiet on the domestic data front.

Tonight there is a pre-Thanksgiving smattering of US data, including the PCE deflator and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.


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Daily exchange rates

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Kymberly Martin is on the BNZ Research team. All its research is available here.