NZD's rise follows weak US retail sales data and market recalibration of RBNZ comments

Short headline: 
NZD gains after MPS

By Kymberly Martin

In a reversal of recent fortunes, the USD weakened against most of its peers overnight.

The AUD and NZD have been the strongest performers over the past 24-hours.

The EUR was on the ascendancy from early in the evening, independent of EU data releases. However, the EUR/USD made its intra-night highs immediately after the release of softer-than-expected US retail sales data. Having touched above 1.0680 the EUR/USD then returned to trade at 1.0600 this morning.

The US retail sales data were disappointing given the boost that consumers’ purchasing power has received from the fall in energy prices. However, it appears that severe winter weather may have contributed to the soft results. The USD index has rebounded from intra-night lows but nevertheless sits lower than last evening, at 99.40 this morning.

The GBP was the only currency unable to hold onto gains against the USD overnight. After the US retail sales data it spiked to 1.5020 but has subsequently subsided to trade below 1.4860 currently.

Our NAB colleagues saw yesterday’s AU employment report as slightly encouraging. Employment is now trending higher at 14k a month, not far shy of the 17k growth required to keep unemployment stable. However, the report elicited limited response from the currency as it was close to expectation. It was not until later last night that the AUD rose in the backdrop of a weaker USD. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7690 this morning.

NZD/USD responded abruptly to yesterday morning’s RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement. It moved rapidly from below 0.7200, to 0.7300, after the RBNZ failed to deliver the rate cut hints the market had anticipated. Rather the RBNZ was steadfastly ‘neutral’ right down to its completely flat 90-day bank bill trajectory.

The now obligatory comment from the RBNZ that the level of the currency is “unjustified” and “unsustainable”, did not concern the currency.

Indeed, this time around the statement appeared to relate to NZ’s “long-term economic fundamentals” as opposed to being a statement that the currency is currently grossly over-valued. We would agree with this assessment.

Positive momentum in the NZD/USD was maintained during the evening, before the NZD/USD found resistance approaching 0.7450, returning to trade at 0.7370 currently. Support is eyed around 0.7340.

The NZD has also strengthened on most of the crosses, with the exception of the NZD/AUD.

Notably the NZD/EUR has pushed up to new highs, reaching toward 0.7000 overnight before returning to trade at 0.6950 currently.

Look out for the BNZ Manufacturing PMI today. We are hopeful of a bounce-back, after its unusually soft result of 50.9 in January.

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Daily exchange rates

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},

subtitle : {
text : chart_subtitles_arr[j],
floating:true, //enable us to position the subtitle using 'x' and 'y'
align: 'center',
x:10,
y:15,
style: {
fontFamily:'Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif',
},
},

xAxis: {
type:'datetime',
lineWidth: 20,
// gridLineColor:'#FAFFFF',
// gridLineDashStyle:'Dot',
dateTimeLabelFormats: {
day: '%e-%b',
week: '%e-%b',
month: '%b-%y',
year: '%Y'
},
max:xpad,
events: {
setExtremes: function(e) {
if (e.trigger === "navigator") {
max=e.max+padding_value;
var x=this;
setTimeout(function(){
x.setExtremes(e.min,max); //chart xAxis
}, 4);
}
}
},
labels: {
style: {
color: 'black',
fontSize: '10px',
fontWeight:'bold',
fontFamily:'Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif'
},
y:3
}
},

yAxis: {
opposite: true,
startonTick: true,
endonTick: true,
labels: {
formatter: function() {
return Highcharts.numberFormat(this.value,setdecimalpoints(this.value));
},
style: {
color: 'black',
fontSize: '10px',
fontWeight:'normal'
},
y:-12
}
},

scrollbar: {
liveRedraw: false
},

series : [{
data : finalAr[i],
id: 'dataseries',
lineWidth:3,
pointPlacement: 'on',
zIndex:9999,
name : 'AAPL Stock Price',
shadow:{
width:3,
color:'#000000'
},
lineColor:'#FF0000',
type : 'area',
threshold : null,
tooltip : {
valueDecimals : decimal_arr[i],
useHTML: true,
headerFormat:'

{point.key}
‘,
pointFormat: ‘{point.y}
‘,
footerFormat:’

‘,
},
dataGrouping:{
dateTimeLabelFormats: {
hour:[‘%b-%e,%Y’, ‘%b-%e,%Y’, ”],
day: [‘%b-%e,%Y’, ‘%b-%e,%Y’, ‘-%b %e, %Y’],
week: [‘%e-%b,%Y’, ‘%e-%b,%Y’, ‘-%e %b, %Y’],
month:[‘%b-%y’, ‘%b-%y’, ‘-%b %y %Y’],
year: [‘%Y’, ‘%Y’, ‘-%Y’] }
},
fillColor: {
linearGradient: { x1: 0, y1: 0, x2: 0, y2: 1},
stops: [
[0, ‘#FFD8D5’],
[1, ‘rgba(255,255,255,0)’] ] },
fillOpacity:.01
},
{
type: ‘flags’,
useHTML: true,
name: ‘Flags on series’,
data: JSON.parse(“[“+flag_test+”]”),
onSeries: ‘dataseries’,
shape: “url(/sites/all/libraries/InterestHighcharts/images/balloon.jpg)”,
width : 5,
y: -33 //this is for flag
}]

});
}
});
//$(‘.series’).animate({height: 600, width: 800});

})(jQuery);

We update this chart twice each day, from the same data the drives our 'live-rates' charts.

Read full story

All its research is available here.