NZ 2-year swap closed at 3.55%, markets eyeing on ANZ business confidence survey for direction, especially pricing intentions

Short headline: 
Dabbling sideways

By Kymberly Martin

It was a very quiet start to the week in NZ markets with swaps closing down 1 bps across the curve.

Overnight, US 10-year yields dabbled sideways around 1.95%.

In the absence of domestic data releases there was little to drive sentiment in the NZ market yesterday.

NZ 2-year swap closed at 3.55%. 

We continue to believe that in coming weeks the market will likely move to price increased RBNZ rate cuts. But we would see this as setting up paying opportunities in the likes of June/July OIS, or 2-year swap.

We do not expect the RBNZ to deliver rate cuts any time soon. A catalyst for the market to price further cuts may be the 20 April Q4 CPI release (BNZ, 0.1%y/y).

Overnight, German 10-year yields rose off intra-night lows close to 0.18% after German CPI was shown to have exited two months of negative inflation. Yields are now back above 0.20%, though the risk of a more sustained period of deflation in the Eurozone as a whole remains.

For the short-end of the NZ curve, today’s ANZ business confidence survey will be key. Focus in this survey has moved from activity indicators (that are persistently strong) to inflation indicators (that are more mixed).

The rates market is more likely to respond to signals from pricing intentions and inflation expectations than headline confidence.

Daily swap rates

//var root_url=”http://www.interest.co.nz/”
var root_url=”http://www.interest.co.nz/charts-csv/” // left untouched for now
var tabs_count=”7″;
var csvfiles_loc= [“/charts-csv/chart_data/interestrates/swap-1yr.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/interestrates/swap-2yr.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/interestrates/swap-3yr.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/interestrates/swap-4yr.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/interestrates/swap-5yr.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/interestrates/swap-7yr.csv”,” /charts-csv/chart_data/interestrates/swap-10yr.csv”];
var chart_title_arr= [“Swap rate”,”Swap rate”,”Swap rate”,”Swap rate”,”Swap rate”,”Swap rate”,”Swap rate”];
var chart_subtitles_arr= [“Opening daily rate”,”Opening daily rate”,”Opening daily rate”,”Opening daily rate”,”Opening daily rate”,”Opening daily rate”,”Opening daily rate”];
var tab_titles_arr= [“1 year %”,”2 years %”,”3 years %”,”4 years %”,”5 years %”,”7 years %”,”10 years %”];
var source_arr= [“Westpac”,”Westpac”,”Westpac”,”Westpac”,”Westpac”,”Westpac”,”Westpac”];
var source_hyperlink_arr= [“http://www.westpac.co.nz”,”http://www.westpac.co.nz”,”http://www.westpac.co.nz”,”http://www.westpac.co.nz”,”http://www.westpac.co.nz”,”http://www.westpac.co.nz”,”http://www.westpac.co.nz”];
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// to generate the format for date representation in x axis

var timestamweek = 604800000;
var timestamday = 86400000;
var timestammonth30 = 2592000000;
var timestammonth31 = 2678400000;
var timestamyear = 31536000000;
var timestamquarterly = 7776000000;

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var dd= fomat.substring(0,k1);
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mm= “06”;
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mm= “07”;
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mm= “08”;
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mm= “10”;
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mm= “11”;
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//alert(date);

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//alert(“this is flagAr”+flagAr);

var timestam_1 = Date.parse(date);
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var dd2 = time4.getDate();
var mm2 = time4.getMonth();
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var url=arr[i][2];
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Weeko = “Thu”;
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Weeko = “Fri”;
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Weeko = “Sat”;
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mm2 = “Feb”;
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mm2 = “Apr”;
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mm2 = “May”;
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mm2 = “Jun”;
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mm2 = “Jul”;
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mm2 = “Aug”;
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else if (mm2==8)
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mm2 = “Sep”;
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else if (mm2==9)
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mm2 = “Oct”;
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mm2 = “Nov”;
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mm2 = “Dec”;
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//++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

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fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
padding_value=timestamyear;
range_selector=3;
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fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
padding_value=timestamquarterly;
range_selector=3;
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fomat2=dd2+”-“+mm2+”-“+yy4;
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arr[i][1] = decpad;

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var yvalu= String(arr[i][1]);
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//alert(“this is updt= “+updt);
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tempAr.push(timestam);
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arr[i][1]=null;
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yaxisAr[csvgen_counter].push(arr[i][1]);
// tempAr1.push(timestam);
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tempAr.push(arr[i][1]);
last_val=timestam;
finalAr[csvgen_counter].push(tempAr);
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xpad=last_val+padding_value; //*****************to end up graph early//////
//alert(finalAr[csvgen_counter]);
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vi=arr.length-i;
arr.length=arr.length-vi;
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fomat = replic;

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do {
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var dd= fomat.substring(0,k1);
var mm = fomat.substring(k1+1,k2);
var yy = "20"+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);

// conversion of months into numerical form

//+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (mm == "Jan")
{
mm= "01";
}
else if (mm == "Feb")
{
mm= "02";
}

else if (mm == "Mar")
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mm= "03";
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else if (mm == "Apr")
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mm= "04";
}

else if (mm == "May")
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mm= "05";
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else if (mm == "Jun")
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mm= "06";
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mm= "07";
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else if (mm == "Sep")
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mm= "09";
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else if (mm == "Oct")
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mm= "10";
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mm= "11";
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else if (mm == "Dec")
{
mm= "12";
}
// +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

var date = mm+"/"+dd+"/"+yy;
//here flagAr may be
var timestam = Date.parse(date);
var time4 = new Date(timestam);
var Weeko = time4.getDay();
var dd2 = time4.getDate();
var mm2 = time4.getMonth();

var yy2 = time4.getFullYear();
var yy3 = yy2+"";
var yy4= yy3.substring(2,4);
//++++++++++++++++++++++++this for days conversion++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (Weeko==1)
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Weeko = "Mon";
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Weeko = "Tue";
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Weeko = "Wed";
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Weeko = "Thu";
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else if (Weeko==5)
{
Weeko = "Fri";
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else if (Weeko==6)
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Weeko = "Sat";
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else if (Weeko==0)
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Weeko = "Sun";
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//+++++++++++++++++++++++this is for month conversion+++++

if (mm2==0)
{
mm2 = "Jan";
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else if (mm2==1)
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mm2 = "Feb";
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else if (mm2==2)
{
mm2 = "Mar";
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else if (mm2==3)
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mm2 = "Apr";
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mm2 = "May";
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else if (mm2==5)
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mm2 = "Jun";
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else if (mm2==6)
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mm2 = "Jul";
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else if (mm2==7)
{
mm2 = "Aug";
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else if (mm2==8)
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mm2 = "Sep";
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else if (mm2==9)
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mm2 = "Oct";
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{
mm2 = "Nov";
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mm2 = "Dec";
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fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
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fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
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arr[i][1] = decpad;
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var xmlhttp = new window.XMLHttpRequest();
xmlhttp.open("POST",file,false);
return xmlhttp;
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catch(e)
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error=e.message;
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throw new Error("MSXML is not installed on your system.");
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function readCSV(locfile) {
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var req = new getXMLHttpRequest(locfile);
//req.open("POST",locfile,false);
req.send("");
//alert(req.responseText.split(/n/g));
return req.responseText.split(/n/g);
}

function parseLineCSV(lineCSV) {
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var CSV = new Array();

lineCSV = lineCSV.replace(/,/g," ,");

lineCSV = lineCSV.split(/,/g);

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// remove all trailing space in each field
for (var i=0;i<lineCSV.length;i++) {
lineCSV[i] = lineCSV[i].replace(/s*$/g,"");
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lineCSV[lineCSV.length-1]=lineCSV[lineCSV.length-1].replace(/^s*|s*$/g,"");
var fstart = -1;

for (var i=0;i=0) {
for (var j=fstart+1;j<=i;j++) {
lineCSV[fstart]=lineCSV[fstart]+","+lineCSV[j];
lineCSV[j]="-DELETED-";

}
fstart=-1;
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}
fstart = (lineCSV[i].match(/^"/)) ? i : fstart;
}

var j=0;

for (var i=0;i<lineCSV.length;i++) {
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CSV[j] = lineCSV[i];
j++;
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}

return CSV;
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function roundVal(val_num){
var dec = 2;
var result = Math.round(val_num*Math.pow(10,dec))/Math.pow(10,dec);
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function setdecimalpoints(deca)
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var deca1= deca;
var deca2= parseInt(deca);
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{
return 2;
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return 0;
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}
for(i=0;i<tabs_count;i++)
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var loc=csvfiles_loc[i];
csvgenerata(loc);
//alert(flagAr[csvgen_counter]);
// var flag_test="["+flagAr[csvgen_counter]+"]";
// alert(flag_test);
}

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jQuery.noConflict();
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//alert(xpad);
$.getJSON(‘http://www.highcharts.com/samples/data/jsonp.php?filename=aapl-c.json&callback=?’, function(data) {
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var arr_uppermedian_val=finalAr[i][arr_uppermedian_pos][0];
//alert(finalAr[i][arr_uppermedian_pos][0]);
var oneDay = 24*60*60*1000;
var window_selector=Math.floor((xpad-arr_uppermedian_val)/oneDay);
//alert(window_selector);
var j=i-1;
var flag_test=flagAr[i];
ymax_pad[i]=Math.max.apply(Math, yaxisAr[i]);
ymin_pad[i]=Math.min.apply(Math, yaxisAr[i]);
var margin_max=ymax_pad[i] * 0.1;
var margin_min=ymin_pad[i] * 0.1;
var y_max=ymax_pad[i] + margin_max;
var y_min=ymin_pad[i] – margin_min;

// var ymax=ymax_pad[i];
// var ymin=ymin_pad[i];
// var max_ticks=1000;
// var ticks_int=(ymax-ymin)/max_ticks;
// var ymax_padder=ymax_pad[i]+ticks_int;
// var ymin_padder=ymin_pad[i]-ticks_int;
//alert(ticks_int);
// alert("ymax_pad="+ymax_pad[i]);
// alert("ymax="+ymax);
// alert("ymin_pad="+ymin_pad[i]);
// alert("ymin="+ymin);
$('#container_'+i).highcharts('StockChart', {
chart: {
borderColor: '#000000',
height:363,
width:547,
marginLeft:-3,
marginTop:-43, //takes the chart area up
events: {
load: function() {
this.renderer.image('/sites/all/libraries/InterestHighcharts/images/Interest_logo.gif', 170, 75, 200, 80).add(); // add image(url, x, y, w, h)
}
},
zoomType:'x'
},

credits: {
itemStyle: {
cursor: 'pointer',
color: '#000000',
fontSize: '11px',
fontWeight:'bold'
},
position: {
align: 'right',
x:-50,
verticalAlign: 'bottom',
y:-35
},
text: 'Source:'+source_arr[j],
href: source_hyperlink_arr[j] },

exporting: {
enabled:false, //diables the print button
},

rangeSelector : {
selected : 0,
inputEnabled : false,
buttonTheme:{
display: 'none'
},
labelStyle:{
color: 'transparent'
},
buttons: [{
type: 'day',
count: window_selector,
}, {
type: 'week',
count: 3,
text: '3w'
}, {
type: 'month',
count: 6,
text: '6m'
}, {
type: 'ytd',
text: 'YTD'
}, {
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count: 1,
text: '1y'
}, {
type: 'all',
text: 'All'
}] },

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adaptToUpdatedData: false,
xAxis:{
labels:{
enabled: false,
},
},
height: 50,
margin:-2,
series:{
lineColor:'#FF0000',
fillColor : '#FFFFFF'
}
},

title : {
text : chart_title_arr[j],
align: 'left',
x: 26,
verticalAlign: 'top',
//y: 50,
style: {
fontFamily:'Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif',
fontWeight:'bold'
}
},

subtitle : {
text : chart_subtitles_arr[j],
floating:true, //enable us to position the subtitle using 'x' and 'y'
align: 'center',
x:10,
y:15,
style: {
fontFamily:'Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif',
},
},

xAxis: {
type:'datetime',
lineWidth: 20,
// gridLineColor:'#FAFFFF',
// gridLineDashStyle:'Dot',
dateTimeLabelFormats: {
day: '%e-%b',
week: '%e-%b',
month: '%b-%y',
year: '%Y'
},
max:xpad,
events: {
setExtremes: function(e) {
if (e.trigger === "navigator") {
max=e.max+padding_value;
var x=this;
setTimeout(function(){
x.setExtremes(e.min,max); //chart xAxis
}, 4);
}
}
},
labels: {
style: {
color: 'black',
fontSize: '10px',
fontWeight:'bold',
fontFamily:'Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif'
},
y:3
}
},

yAxis: {
opposite: true,
startonTick: true,
endonTick: true,
labels: {
formatter: function() {
return Highcharts.numberFormat(this.value,setdecimalpoints(this.value));
},
style: {
color: 'black',
fontSize: '10px',
fontWeight:'normal'
},
y:-12
}
},

scrollbar: {
liveRedraw: false
},

series : [{
data : finalAr[i],
id: 'dataseries',
lineWidth:3,
pointPlacement: 'on',
zIndex:9999,
name : 'AAPL Stock Price',
shadow:{
width:3,
color:'#000000'
},
lineColor:'#FF0000',
type : 'area',
threshold : null,
tooltip : {
valueDecimals : decimal_arr[i],
useHTML: true,
headerFormat:'

{point.key}
‘,
pointFormat: ‘{point.y}
‘,
footerFormat:’

‘,
},
dataGrouping:{
dateTimeLabelFormats: {
hour:[‘%b-%e,%Y’, ‘%b-%e,%Y’, ”],
day: [‘%b-%e,%Y’, ‘%b-%e,%Y’, ‘-%b %e, %Y’],
week: [‘%e-%b,%Y’, ‘%e-%b,%Y’, ‘-%e %b, %Y’],
month:[‘%b-%y’, ‘%b-%y’, ‘-%b %y %Y’],
year: [‘%Y’, ‘%Y’, ‘-%Y’] }
},
fillColor: {
linearGradient: { x1: 0, y1: 0, x2: 0, y2: 1},
stops: [
[0, ‘#FFD8D5’],
[1, ‘rgba(255,255,255,0)’] ] },
fillOpacity:.01
},
{
type: ‘flags’,
useHTML: true,
name: ‘Flags on series’,
data: JSON.parse(“[“+flag_test+”]”),
onSeries: ‘dataseries’,
shape: “url(/sites/all/libraries/InterestHighcharts/images/balloon.jpg)”,
width : 5,
y: -33 //this is for flag
}]

});
}
});
//$(‘.series’).animate({height: 600, width: 800});

})(jQuery);

These are start-of-day swap rates tracked and reported by a major bank.

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