National support jumps in October with signing of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and leads potential Labour/Greens alliance

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During October support for National rose 5.5% to 50% well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 40.5% (down 5.5%) according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll. If a NZ Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be easily re-elected.

Support for the National partners changed slightly with the Maori Party 0.5% (down 1%) – now at their lowest since last year’s NZ Election, Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 29% (down 2%), Greens 11.5% (down 3.5%) but support for NZ First increased to 6.5% (up 1%).

Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (up 1%).

However, despite the good news for National this month, the NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 122pts (down 6.5pts) in October. A decreasing majority of NZ electors 53% (down 5%) say NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 31% (up 1.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is still far higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence is at 109pts.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“The governing National 50% (up 5.5% in October) has regained the lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 40.5% (down 5.5%) after New Zealand was one of 12 Asia-Pacific countries to successfully conclude the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations early in October. New Zealand joins neighbours Australia, and some of the world’s largest economies including the United States, Japan, Canada and Mexico in agreeing to bring down trade barriers between the participating countries to help improve productivity and grow their economies.

“The successful conclusion to the TPP negotiations is a major milestone for New Zealand Prime Minister John Key, and since the conclusion of the trade deal the New Zealand stock-market has increased strongly. The S&P NZX 50 has gone from 5,593.51 prior to the TPP deal being signed to a close today of 5,775,71 – an increase of 182.2pts (+3.3%) over the past eight days – increasing on six out of eight trading days. The New Zealand Dollar has also increased from a value of 64 US cents to be trading today at 68.3 US cents – an increase of 6.7%.

“In addition to the positive news for the New Zealand economy, today’s latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating for October has increased to 114.9 (up 4.1pts) – the second straight month of increases. The growing confidence of New Zealand consumers heading towards the important Christmas retailing season should help to ‘speed up’ growth in the economy which slowed to a rate of growth of only 2.4% year-on-year in the June Quarter 2015.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 882 electors in October 2015. Of all electors surveyed 7% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.