Markets got the good US data they were expecting. NZD vulnerable to changes in risk appetites

By Kymberly Martin

The USD has strengthened against most of its European counterparts overnight.

The NZD/USD has outperformed.

Ahead of today’s US Thanksgiving holiday, markets were fairly calm overnight. The Euro Stoxx50 rebounded 1.5% after its previous day’s losses. Our global risk appetite index (scale 0-100%) is hanging on, at around 56%.

US data delivery overnight was generally not too far from expectation, with insufficient surprise to provoke much in the way of currency response. However, the USD pushed a little higher in the late evening against softer European peers. The EUR/USD has traded down from evening highs above 1.0680 to sit at 1.0630 currently.

The NZD/USD has extended its rebound over the past 24-hours but has found resistance at the 0.6580 level on a number of occasions, the level where it currently trades. For the rest of the week there is not a great deal on the domestic or offshore calendar that is likely to directly drive the currency. A period of consolidation into weekend seems likely, in the absence of new geopolitical headlines. Any news flow which undermines risk appetite would likely take a direct toll on the ‘risk sensitive’ NZD.

The NZD/AUD has rebounded overnight. From below 0.9030 last evening, the cross currently trades at 0.9070. Today, focus in Australia will be on the release of Q3 private capital expenditure data. Although our NAB colleagues expect a soft -4%q/q outcome (consensus -2.9%), they anticipate the detail and forward-looking components may show a little more promise.

Otherwise it looks to be a fairly quiet day, as the US moves into its Thanksgiving holiday, which is inclined to run into a long weekend.


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Daily exchange rates

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Kymberly Martin is on the BNZ Research team. All its research is available here.