Dairy prices rise +9.9% at GDT auction; IMF sees growth in West, stall in EMs; US trade deficit widens on strong China imports; UST 10yr yield 2.05%; NZ$1 = 65.4 US¢, TWI-5 = 69.9

Here’s my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the IMF sees the West growing but emerging markets not.

But first, following yesterday’s market assessments that New Zealand has done well out of the Trans Pacific Partnership deal – and this despite few immediate gains for our dairy exports – the New Zealand dollar strengthened.

Today it is dairy’s turn to shine, with another +9.9% rise in the GlobalDairyTrade auction, and the New Zealand dollar got a further push higher.

This is the fourth consecutive rise and the important WMP component rose +12.9%.

Overall prices are back to where they were in March and +63% higher than they were at their lowest point in August. However, they are now at their highest in more than 15 months in New Zealand dollars. The overall-lower currency is doing its job well.

In other news, the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook foresees lower global growth compared to last year, with modest pickup in advanced economies and a slowing in emerging markets, primarily reflecting weakness in some large emerging economies and oil-exporting countries. That is a tough prognosis for Australia.

But there may have been a signal that factories in China have been more active recently. The American trade deficit has come in larger than forecast, primarily on surging imports from China. These are August data, but that reinforces the surprise.

In New York, the UST 10yr yield benchmark inched higher today and is currently at 2.05%.

The US benchmark oil price continues higher, now just over US$48/barrel, Brent and just on US$51/barrel.

The gold price is following the same trend higher, now at US$1,147/oz.

The New Zealand dollar has gained overnight. It is currently at 65.4 US¢, at 91.5 AU¢, and 58.1 euro cents. The TWI-5 is at 69.9 and nearly a two month high.

If you want to catch up with all the local changes on Friday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here »

Daily exchange rates

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