Dairy prices caving in; US factory orders rebound; Fed sends rate hike signal; Aussie retail sales surge; UST 10yr yield 2.19%; NZ$1 = 65.4 US¢, TWI-5 = 70.2

Here’s my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of more commodity price falls.

The big news today is the continuing slump in dairy prices. They were down another -9.3% overnight taking the drop from February an eye-watering -46%. WMP prices are down -51%.

Buyers are staying away from a market that is caving in on itself.

All eyes are now on Friday’s Fonterra review of their milk payout. It will likely be ugly. Oddly, the exchange rate has not yet reacted very severely; it is down especially against the Aussie, but other factors may account for the movement so far. We have more on the dairy story here.

In the US factory orders rose strongly in June on rising demand for transportation equipment and other goods, a hopeful sign their manufacturing sector is overcoming some recent softness. New orders, shipments and the order back-log were all higher. Trucks, computers, and fertiliser led the way, although there are also some sector declines.

More comments are coming from Fed members, raising expectations of a September interest rate rise. If there are voting members against a rise then, they are very silent these days.

In Australia, retail sales surged in June, easily beating expectations, as consumers opened their wallets.

In New York, the UST 10yr yield benchmark has recovered a bit today and is now at 2.19%.

The US oil price is holding at its new lower levels and is currently at US$45/barrel, and Brent crude is at US$49/barrel. The oil glut is just one of ‘three gluts‘, the others being the savings glut and a money glut.

The gold price is lower again, now at US$1,080/oz.

The New Zealand dollar also starts today lower at 65.4 US¢, a lot lower against the Aussie at 88.5 AU¢, and at 60 euro cents. The TWI-5 is at 70.2.

Later this morning, the New Zealand unemployment rate for June will be announced.

If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here »

Daily exchange rates

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for(i=0;i

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