China growth cools, economy transitions to consumption; some suppliers concerned, others encouraged; US housing confidence up; oil and gold down; NZ$1 = 68 US¢, TWI-5 = 72.2

Here’s my summary of the key events overnight affect New Zealand, with news all attention of markets overnight has been on Chinese data.

China’s growth cooled in the September quarter to +6.9%. This is below the official target but above what most analysts were expecting.

The result was helped by a strong services sector, reinforced by strong domestic retail sales, up +10.9%. But for outsiders dependent on China demand – especially minerals and oil – the news has not helped their sentiment. It was their industrial production that missed the mark in Q3.

However, the transition to more of a focus on a consumer oriented economy is not bad news for New Zealand. It seems entirely possible China will lower its growth targets as it expands – its very fast catch-up rate has been continuous since the early 1990s and from here on it will revert to more normal levels.

This fast transition is impressing some, worrying others. Chinese tax revenues are still rising fast however, up +9.2% while unemployment rate is said to be 5.2%.

In the US, home builder confidence rose again and is now at a level last seen prior to the GFC.

In New York, the UST 10yr yield benchmark inched higher overnight and is currently at 2.05%.

The US benchmark oil price is marginally lower at just over US$46/barrel, and the Brent benchmark is just on US$49/barrel. This is on expectations of lower demand from China.

The gold price is also lower in trading in London and New York, down more than US$10 and now at US$1,173/oz.

The New Zealand dollar starts today still holding last week’s gains. It is currently at 68 US¢, at 93.7 AU¢, and 60 euro cents. The TWI-5 is at 72.2.

If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here »

Daily exchange rates

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