Bond yields take a break as neither data flows nor policy maker signals indicate where fixed income markets are headed

By Doug Steel

Global yields were little changed overnight. US 10-year Treasury yields opened lower, then briefly nudged above 2.30%, before easing back to about unchanged on the day close to 2.29%. All quite subdued ahead of key data releases this week including the US PCE deflator and ISM manufacturing survey tonight and payrolls on Friday.

It was a similar subdued story for the local market yesterday. NZGB and swap yields moved no more than a basis point right across the curve. This as the market waits for tomorrow’s Q2 labour market data and next week’s RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement. NZ 2-year swap yields closed at 2.215%, NZ 5-year swap just under 2.76% and NZ 10-year swap a nudge over 3.28%.

There is nothing on the local calendar today, as we await the RBA decision at 4.30pm. The RBA is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% and remain neutral on guidance. Friday’s RBA quarterly statement will provide more detail on key forecasts but shouldn’t look dramatically different.

The RBA Governor and Deputy Governor speeches over the last two weeks have given markets little reason to expect any policy guidance shift anytime soon.

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Doug Steel is a senior economist at BNZ Markets. All its research is available here.