A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; SBS Bank cuts TD rates, Truckometer suggests Q4 lift, IMF spells out our risks, house prices fall, swap rates hesitate

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were no rate changes announced today.

TODAY’S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank reduced rates across the board for its term deposit offers, with -5 to -15 bps cuts.

‘BACK IN BUSINESS’
ANZ’s Truckometer series came in quite positive today. “The Heavy Traffic Index lifted another 0.9% in October, while the Light Traffic Index, which leads growth in the economy by six months, largely held onto September’s 2.6% surge, dipping just 0.3%.2 The Heavy Traffic Index suggests that Q3 GDP growth may be in a 0.5-1.0% q/q range, which would be a clear improvement on the lacklustre rates seen in the first half of this year. The strong October result is also a good start to Q4.”

IMF PASSES JUDGMENT
The IMF has had staff here reviewing our economy. They say NZ’s economy is ‘resilient’ but faces significant risks tilted to the downside.

RETAIL RISING SLOWER
Retail spending using electronic cards was $4.9 billion in October 2015, up +$260 million (+5.6%) from October 2014, Statistics New Zealand said today. Spending rose in five of the six retail industries, with a fall in fuel spending. This retail data is an interesting contrast to the ANZ Truckometer series, and it is the Truckometer that better correlates to future GDP.

O’ OH
The latest REINZ house sales data has some sobering detail for October. The median price fall was the largest on record – down $24,650 from September. Auckland prices fell as well. Most years there is a seasonal volume lull from April to September, but not this year. So the October 2015 sales volumes changed very little to reflect the new season selling period. Except in Auckland where the drop in sales volumes was very noticeable. (It was a drop first flagged in the Barfoot data.)

MATURING
The growth in new KiwiSaver signups is slowing faster these days. To October 2.564 mln people are signed up which is 70% of the working age population, but that number is growing at ‘only’ +6.1% year-on-year. There are now over 120,000 members on ‘active holidays’, the highest level ever. (The number of closed accounts is now almost 133,000.)

CHINA PRICES DEPRESSING
Consumer inflation took a sharper-than-expected shift lower in October in China at +1.3%. Markets were expecting +1.6%. Worse, China’s producer price deflation is now running at -5.9%, a level it has maintained for the past three months and can’t seem to shake. Everything hangs on the resilience of China’s large service sector. But with CPI falling, expect some significant stimulus soon.

NO INFLATION SIGNS HERE EITHER
Speaking of inflation, ANZ’s monthly inflation monitoring (remember Stats NZ only reports quarterly) shows low headline rates here too. Their Monthly Inflation Gauge “posted a +0.1% increase in October, the second consecutive month that was milder than the usual seasonal increase. Prices in the Gauge were up +0.4% in the three months to October. That’s sub-par for this time of year. Prices in the Underlying Ex-housing Gauge were unchanged in October and up just +0.2% over the last three months. Low inflation keeps further interest rate stimulus on the cards.”

FAST PAYERS
Compared with over the ditch, NZ companies pay promptly. Local invoice payment times flatlined in the September quarter after declines in the previous three quarters, with recent economic data suggesting GDP growth is slowing says Dun & Bradstreet. Their Trade Payments Analysis shows that the average time taken by businesses to pay their invoices was steady at 35.3 days, compared to 35 days in the previous quarter. The result is an improvement of 5 days on the same quarter a year ago. This level of prompt business payment is now up there with US practice.

WHOLESALE RATES UNCHANGED
Local wholesale swap rates rose only marginally at the long end today, in contrast to the strong rises on Wall Street. In fact, we saw -1 bps falls for 1 and 2 year terms. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 2.90%.

NZ DOLLAR HOLDS
Our currency has hardly reacted to either the IMF warnings or to the softer REINZ data today. It is still at 65.3 USc, at 92.7 AUc and 60.7 euro cents. The TWI-5 is at 71.1. Check our real-time charts here.

You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.

Daily exchange rates

<!–

var root_url = "http://www.interest.co.nz/charts-csv/";
var tabs_count="7";
var csvfiles_loc= ["/charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-usd.csv"," /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-aud.csv"," /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-twi.csv"," /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-yen.csv"," /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-yuan.csv"," /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-eur.csv"," /charts-csv/chart_data/exchangerates/daily-gbp.csv"];
var chart_title_arr= ["US dollar","Australian dollar","Trade weighted index","Japanese Yen","Chinese Yuan","Euro","British pound"];
var chart_subtitles_arr= ["Daily benchmark rate","Daily benchmark rate","Daily benchmark rate","Daily benchmark rate","Daily benchmark rate","Daily benchmark rate","Daily benchmark rate"];
var tab_titles_arr= ["US$","AU$","TWI","u00a5en","u00a5uan","u20acuro","GBP"];
var source_arr= ["RBNZ","RBNZ","RBNZ","RBNZ","RBNZ","RBNZ","RBNZ"];
var source_hyperlink_arr= ["8"];
var tabswidth="8";
var decimal_arr= ["4","4","4","2","2","4","4"];

// variable declaration
var xpad;
var padding_value=0;
var range_selector=0
var loc;
var updt;
var val_num;
var vi=0;
var max_val;
var x;

var finalAr = new Array();
for (var i = 0; i <= tabs_count; i++) {
finalAr[i] = new Array();
}
var flagAr = new Array();
for (var i = 0; i <= tabs_count; i++) {
flagAr[i] =[];
}
var yaxisAr = new Array();
for (var i = 0; i 536)
{
var b = arr.length – 536; // to get last 36 points
}
else if (arr.length < 536)
{
var b = 537 – arr.length;
}
else if(arr.length == 536)
{
var b=2;
}

// to generate the format for date representation in x axis

var timestamweek = 604800000;
var timestamday = 86400000;
var timestammonth30 = 2592000000;
var timestammonth31 = 2678400000;
var timestamyear = 31536000000;
var timestamquarterly = 7776000000;

for (var u=0;u<2;u++) {
arr[u] = parseLineCSV(arr[u]);
fomat= String(arr[u][0]);
var k=0;

do {
k++;
} while(fomat.charAt(k)!="-")
var k1 =k;

do {
k++;
} while(fomat.charAt(k)!="-")
var k2=k;

do {
k++;
} while(k<fomat.length)
var k3=k;

var dd= fomat.substring(0,k1);
var mm = fomat.substring(k1+1,k2);
var yy = "20"+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);
var yy1=fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);

// conversion of months into numerical form

//+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (mm == "Jan")
{
mm= "01";
}
else if (mm == "Feb")
{
mm= "02";
}

else if (mm == "Mar")
{
mm= "03";
}

else if (mm == "Apr")
{
mm= "04";
}

else if (mm == "May")
{
mm= "05";
}

else if (mm == "Jun")
{
mm= "06";
}

else if (mm == "Jul")
{
mm= "07";
}

else if (mm == " Aug")
{
mm= "08";
}

else if (mm == "Sep")
{
mm= "09";
}

else if (mm == "Oct")
{
mm= "10";
}

else if (mm == "Nov")
{
mm= "11";
}

else if (mm == "Dec")
{
mm= "12";
}

// +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

var date2 = mm+"/"+dd+"/"+yy;

if (u==0)
{
var timestam1 = Date.parse(date2);
}
else if(u==1)
{
var timestam2 = Date.parse(date2);
}
}
var timestamvar = (timestam2- timestam1);
var flagAR_count=0;
for (var i=2;i<arr.length;i++) {
flagAR_count++;
var tempAr = new Array();
var tempAr1 = new Array();
arr[i] = parseLineCSV(arr[i]);
if (arr[i]!='')
{

fomat= String(arr[i][0]);
replic=String(arr[i][0]);
var k=0;

do {
k++;
} while(fomat.charAt(k)!="-")
var k1 =k;

do {
k++;
} while(fomat.charAt(k)!="-")
var k2=k;

do {
k++;
} while(k<fomat.length)
var k3=k;

var dd= fomat.substring(0,k1);
var mm = fomat.substring(k1+1,k2);
var current_year=""+new Date().getFullYear();
var c_year=Number(current_year.substring(2,4));
var c_data=Number(''+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1));
if(c_data c_year)
{
var yy = “19”+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);
}
else if(c_data == c_year)
{
var yy = “20”+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);
}
// conversion of months into numerical form

//+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (mm == “Jan”)
{
mm= “01”;
}
else if (mm == “Feb”)
{
mm= “02”;
}

else if (mm == “Mar”)
{
mm= “03”;
}

else if (mm == “Apr”)
{
mm= “04”;
}

else if (mm == “May”)
{
mm= “05”;
}

else if (mm == “Jun”)
{
mm= “06”;
}

else if (mm == “Jul”)
{
mm= “07”;
}

else if (mm == “Aug”)
{
mm= “08”;
}

else if (mm == “Sep”)
{
mm= “09”;
}

else if (mm == “Oct”)
{
mm= “10”;
}

else if (mm == “Nov”)
{
mm= “11”;
}

else if (mm == “Dec”)
{
mm= “12”;
}
// +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

var date = mm+”/”+dd+”/”+yy;

var timestam_1 = Date.parse(date);
var timestam= timestam_1+86400000; //86400000 added to get correct timezone output from Date.parse
var time4 = new Date(timestam);
var Weeko = time4.getDay();
var dd2 = time4.getDate();
var mm2 = time4.getMonth();
var flag_y=arr[i][1];
var ahref_title=”Click here for full story”;
if(arr[i][2]) {
var url=arr[i][2];
var flag_date='{“x”:’+timestam+’, “title”:”  “,”text”:”Click here for Story!”}’;

flagAr[csvgen_counter].push(flag_date);
}
var yy2 = time4.getFullYear();
var yy3 = yy2+””;
var yy4= yy3.substring(2,4);
//++++++++++++++++++++++++this for days conversion++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (Weeko==1)
{
Weeko = “Mon”;
}

else if (Weeko==2)
{
Weeko = “Tue”;
}

else if (Weeko==3)
{
Weeko = “Wed”;
}

else if (Weeko==4)
{
Weeko = “Thu”;
}

else if (Weeko==5)
{
Weeko = “Fri”;
}

else if (Weeko==6)
{
Weeko = “Sat”;
}

else if (Weeko==0)
{
Weeko = “Sun”;
}

//+++++++++++++++++++++++this is for month conversion+++++

if (mm2==0)
{
mm2 = “Jan”;
}

else if (mm2==1)
{
mm2 = “Feb”;
}

else if (mm2==2)
{
mm2 = “Mar”;
}

else if (mm2==3)
{
mm2 = “Apr”;
}

else if (mm2==4)
{
mm2 = “May”;
}

else if (mm2==5)
{
mm2 = “Jun”;
}

else if (mm2==6)
{
mm2 = “Jul”;
}

else if (mm2==7)
{
mm2 = “Aug”;
}

else if (mm2==8)
{
mm2 = “Sep”;
}

else if (mm2==9)
{
mm2 = “Oct”;
}

else if (mm2==10)
{
mm2 = “Nov”;
}

else if (mm2==11)
{
mm2 = “Dec”;
}
//++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

//weekly
if ( timestamvar == timestamweek)
{
fomat2=dd2+”-“+mm2+”-“+yy4;
padding_value=timestamweek;
range_selector=2;
}

// Daily
else if ( timestamvar = timestamyear)
{
fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
padding_value=timestamyear;
range_selector=3;
}

//monthly
else if ((timestamvar <= timestammonth30)&&(timestamvar = timestamquarterly)
{
fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
padding_value=timestamquarterly;
range_selector=3;
}

else
{
fomat2=dd2+”-“+mm2+”-“+yy4;
padding_value=timestamday;
range_selector=3;
}

arr[i][0]= fomat2;
var decpad;
decpad = parseFloat(arr[i][1]);
arr[i][1] = decpad;

if(i==(arr.length-1))
{

// Functionality to get the last value

var xvalu=dd2+”-“+mm2+”-“+yy4;
var yvalu= String(arr[i][1]);
var xyvalu=”Latest value at “+xvalu+” is “+yvalu;
updt=”Updated on “+xvalu;
}

tempAr.push(timestam);
if(!arr[i][1])
{
arr[i][1]=null;
}
yaxisAr[csvgen_counter].push(arr[i][1]);
// tempAr1.push(timestam);
// tempAr2.push(tempAr1);
tempAr.push(arr[i][1]);
last_val=timestam;
finalAr[csvgen_counter].push(tempAr);
}
xpad=last_val+padding_value; //*****************to end up graph early//////
if(arr[i]== “”)
{
vi=arr.length-i;
arr.length=arr.length-vi;
i=arr.length-1;
fomat = replic;

var k=0;

do {
k++;
} while(fomat.charAt(k)!=”-“)
var k1 =k;

do {
k++;
} while(fomat.charAt(k)!=”-“)
var k2=k;

do {
k++;
} while(k<fomat.length)
var k3=k;

var dd= fomat.substring(0,k1);
var mm = fomat.substring(k1+1,k2);
var yy = "20"+fomat.substring(k2+1,k3+1);

// conversion of months into numerical form

//+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (mm == "Jan")
{
mm= "01";
}
else if (mm == "Feb")
{
mm= "02";
}

else if (mm == "Mar")
{
mm= "03";
}

else if (mm == "Apr")
{
mm= "04";
}

else if (mm == "May")
{
mm= "05";
}

else if (mm == "Jun")
{
mm= "06";
}

else if (mm == "Jul")
{
mm= "07";
}

else if (mm == "Aug")
{
mm= "08";
}

else if (mm == "Sep")
{
mm= "09";
}

else if (mm == "Oct")
{
mm= "10";
}

else if (mm == "Nov")
{
mm= "11";
}

else if (mm == "Dec")
{
mm= "12";
}
// +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

var date = mm+"/"+dd+"/"+yy;
//here flagAr may be
var timestam = Date.parse(date);
var time4 = new Date(timestam);
var Weeko = time4.getDay();
var dd2 = time4.getDate();
var mm2 = time4.getMonth();

var yy2 = time4.getFullYear();
var yy3 = yy2+"";
var yy4= yy3.substring(2,4);
//++++++++++++++++++++++++this for days conversion++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
if (Weeko==1)
{
Weeko = "Mon";
}

else if (Weeko==2)
{
Weeko = "Tue";
}

else if (Weeko==3)
{
Weeko = "Wed";
}

else if (Weeko==4)
{
Weeko = "Thu";
}

else if (Weeko==5)
{
Weeko = "Fri";
}

else if (Weeko==6)
{
Weeko = "Sat";
}

else if (Weeko==0)
{
Weeko = "Sun";
}

//+++++++++++++++++++++++this is for month conversion+++++

if (mm2==0)
{
mm2 = "Jan";
}

else if (mm2==1)
{
mm2 = "Feb";
}

else if (mm2==2)
{
mm2 = "Mar";
}

else if (mm2==3)
{
mm2 = "Apr";
}

else if (mm2==4)
{
mm2 = "May";
}

else if (mm2==5)
{
mm2 = "Jun";
}

else if (mm2==6)
{
mm2 = "Jul";
}

else if (mm2==7)
{
mm2 = "Aug";
}

else if (mm2==8)
{
mm2 = "Sep";
}

else if (mm2==9)
{
mm2 = "Oct";
}

else if (mm2==10)
{
mm2 = "Nov";
}

else if (mm2==11)
{
mm2 = "Dec";
}
//++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

//weekly
if ( timestamvar == timestamweek)
{
fomat2=dd2+"-"+mm2+"-"+yy4;
}

// Daily
else if ( timestamvar = timestamyear)
{
fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
}

//monthly
else if ((timestamvar <= timestammonth30)&&(timestamvar = timestamquarterly)
{
fomat2=mm2+”-“+yy4;
}

arr[i][0]= fomat2;
var decpad;

decpad = parseFloat(arr[i][1]);
//arr[i][1] = roundVal(decpad);
arr[i][1] = decpad;
if(i==(arr.length-1))
{

var xvalu=dd2+”-“+mm2+”-“+yy4;
var yvalu= String(arr[i][1]);
var xyvalu=”Latest value at “+xvalu+” is “+yvalu;
updt=”Updated on “+xvalu;
}
}

}
}

//other required functions

//chart configuration starts here

function getXMLHttpRequest(file) {

//var arrSignatures = [“MSXML2.XMLHTTP.5.0”, “MSXML2.XMLHTTP.4.0″,
//”MSXML2.XMLHTTP.3.0”, “MSXML2.XMLHTTP”,
//”Microsoft.XMLHTTP”];

//for (var i=0; i < arrSignatures.length; i++) {

try
{
var xmlhttp = new window.XMLHttpRequest();
xmlhttp.open("POST",file,false);
return xmlhttp;
}
catch(e)
{
error=e.message;
}

//}
throw new Error("MSXML is not installed on your system.");
}

function readCSV(locfile) {
// load a whole csv file, and then split it line by line
var req = new getXMLHttpRequest(locfile);
//req.open("POST",locfile,false);
req.send("");
return req.responseText.split(/n/g);
}

function parseLineCSV(lineCSV) {
// parse csv line by line into array
var CSV = new Array();

lineCSV = lineCSV.replace(/,/g," ,");

lineCSV = lineCSV.split(/,/g);

// This is continuing of 'split' issue in IE
// remove all trailing space in each field
for (var i=0;i<lineCSV.length;i++) {
lineCSV[i] = lineCSV[i].replace(/s*$/g,"");
}

lineCSV[lineCSV.length-1]=lineCSV[lineCSV.length-1].replace(/^s*|s*$/g,"");
var fstart = -1;

for (var i=0;i=0) {
for (var j=fstart+1;j<=i;j++) {
lineCSV[fstart]=lineCSV[fstart]+","+lineCSV[j];
lineCSV[j]="-DELETED-";

}
fstart=-1;
}
}
fstart = (lineCSV[i].match(/^"/)) ? i : fstart;
}

var j=0;

for (var i=0;i<lineCSV.length;i++) {
if (lineCSV[i]!="-DELETED-") {
CSV[j] = lineCSV[i];
j++;
}

}

return CSV;
}

function roundVal(val_num){
var dec = 2;
var result = Math.round(val_num*Math.pow(10,dec))/Math.pow(10,dec);
return result;
}

function setdecimalpoints(deca)
{
var deca1= deca;
var deca2= parseInt(deca);
if((deca1-deca2)!=0)
{
return 2;
}
else
{
return 0;
}
}
for(i=0;i

Charts loading…
Charts loading…
Charts loading…
Charts loading…
Charts loading…
Charts loading…
Charts loading…