Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.
TODAY’S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today here either.
‘A SMOOTH PIVOT’
The RBA looks in no mood to cut interest rates, saying risks from their overheated property market remain significant. The Aussie dollar climbed when the minutes from their last meeting were released and don’t suggest imminent easing. The RBA describe an economy that’s doing pretty well, with inflation predicted to be within the targeted 2-3% range over the next two years. They have acknowledged that GDP growth in Q2 was low, but said this reflected “what appeared to be temporary weakness in resource exports as well as further falls in mining investment.” It sees “further evidence” that the economy is rebalancing from the resources sector towards non-mining activity.
The ‘new’ (?) Aussie government has made some decisions today on bank capital levels and charging for credit card surcharges. Basically they have endorsed the Murray inquiry in calling for lower bank leverage (ie more capital). And they will legislate to prevent merchants charging more for credit card surcharges than the actual cost of providing the service. Requiring banks to hold more conservative capital levels may well mean they try to impose the ‘costs’ of that on their customers – which will open them to some interesting competitive responses and risks. Equity crowd funding will come to Australia (but I hope it is more successful and more of a challenge than it has been in New Zealand).
PART OF GOLDIES DECAMP TO SYDNEY
“We wish to inform you we have entered into a review and consultation process which proposes to implement changes to our securities trading business and settlements and clearing functions in New Zealand,” Goldman Sachs bosses Simon Rothery and Andrew Barclay told staff this morning. “In early 2016 we are proposing to relocate our New Zealand-based market trading activities and implement an integrated coverage model from Sydney.” Investment banking is expected to remain as a standalone business in New Zealand. Goldman Sachs told staff the relocation and integration would be finished in 2016.
PAYING FOR PAY
HSBC says that New Zealand is the second best place for ‘expats’ to live and work. The best place is Singapore and the third best place is Sweden. New Zealand ranks #1 for “Experience”, and #2 for “Family”. What kept us from #1 was pay – we only ranked #16 for “Economics” (and about the same as Australia). Overall, Australia ranked #7, the USA #16 and the UK #23.
TECH TRUMPS STEAM
Dramatic changes are afoot in how we move freight and people around New Zealand. These include bigger ships, more trucks on the road, and changes in technology, says Westpac economist David Norman. Rail’s role in the future will be limited basically because it can never keep up with customer needs.
The 90-day bank bill rate is unchanged at 2.85% today, but swap rates have inched up by +1 bp across the curve.
NZ DOLLAR UNCHANGED
The Kiwi dollar has hovered around the same levels it was at at this time yesterday and it is now back at 68 USc. It is holding against the Aussie at 93.6 AUc and against the euro at 60 euro cents. The TWI-5 is at 72.2. Check our real-time charts here.
You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.