Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ICBC today cut home loan rates locally and in fact they have a very competitive offer card across the board. They may be a new option for some Auckland borrowers.
TODAY’S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.
Following yesterday’s LGFA tender, there has been a NZ Govt bond tender today for inflation protected paper. The September 2035 linkers saw an average yield at 2.2%. But few bidders won anything. Most went to just a few who bid that low. The average yield is down -40 bps in just eight weeks. Linkers pay the yield, plus the capital value is CPI adjusted.
The Government set out its 30 year plan to renew the national infrastructure assets today. This plan comes after a very large technical review. It includes national data standards for roads, water and buildings and will involve more use of tolls.
During August popular support for National jumped 7.5% to 50.5% now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 38% (down 7%) according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll.
DROPPING THE BALL
Consumer confidence has fallen to the lowest level since mid-2012. It’s not weak in absolute terms – the economy still has points on the board – but it’s certainly heading in a weaker direction. Consumers are growing more pessimistic about prospects over the year ahead. Conversely, they still feel better off financially here and now, which is influential for immediate spending trends.
Job ads levels had fallen for the past four months, but in July they stabilised, unchanged from June. There is actual growth in Auckland and the Hawkes Bay, but the best you can say about Wellington and Christchurch is that the declines are slowing.
IGNORE CHINA’S STOCK MARKET SIGNALS
Confidence may be trending down sharply in New Zealand, but in something of a surprising finding, a survey out today of senior managers in China reports that they are more upbeat than they have been in almost a year. It reinforces what we have been saying to readers for a while – the Chinese equity markets are no where near as key to China’s economy as we are used to in the West. For the record, these equity markets have opened lower again today.
SOE VS SOE
Genesis Energy today canceled its Coal Supply Agreement with Solid Energy in another blow for the beleaguered company. It does have to pay a termination fee. The final delivery will be in late October 2015, no further coal supplies will be taken, foregoing 667,000 tonnes that were contracted through to June 2017.
The US oil price is even lower this afternoon; it is now below US$41/barrel and sinking. Gold on the other hand is rising sharply, up to almost US$1,140/oz.
WHOLESALE RATES FALL
Swap rates fell across the board today, down -2 bps at the short end and down -5 bps at the long end. The 90 day bank bill rate also fell -2 bps to 2.90% and back to the level it was on Tuesday.
NZ DOLLAR CREEPS HIGHER
The New Zealand dollar is marginally higher today. It is now at 66.1 USc, at 89.9 AUc, and 59.4 euro cents. The TWI-5 is at 70.6. Check our real-time charts here.
You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.