A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; Spencer warns, China carnage, oil drops, Glenbrook worry, swaps flatter, spreads widen, NZD adjusts

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.

TODAY’S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.

REGULATOR FEAR
The Reserve Bank said today that the sharp rise in the number of smaller residential investors in Auckland relying on credit is a risk to the market. They have some scary stats to report.

MORE CHINA FEAR
The Shanghai stock market index has now erased all its gains year to date. The index is now trading at 3,222, down -8% for the day and now down -0.1% for 2015.

COMMODITY FEAR
The US oil price has today dived below US$40/barrel. As this is written, it is US$39.30, a major move south and its lowest level since 2009. But the gold price, which had moved to US$1,160/oz late last week has not responded in an inverse way. When Europe and Wall Street wake up, expect trouble.

JOBS FEAR
Bluescope Steel has said it is reviewing the viability of the NZ Steel plant at Glenbrook (p43). If that was to happen, the company says, up to 1,000 jobs could be lost.

WHOLESALE RATES FLATTEN
Swap rates fell -3% at the long end and -1% at the short end today. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp to 2.92% The 2-10 curve is now the lowest it has been since early June. Not only that but the credit spreads banks are having to pay is now rising quickly. That cost is now +20% higher than it was over the same time. So despite falls in base wholesale rates, not all of it is available to pass on in retail rates.

NZ DOLLAR SOFTER
Following the RBNZ/Spencer speech (or is it the Chinese jitters?) the NZD has fallen (after rising over the weekend) against the greenback. It is now at 65.8 USc, higher at 91.2 AUc, and lower against the euro at 57.4 euro cents. The TWI-5 is at 70. Check our real-time charts here.

You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.

Daily exchange rates

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for(i=0;i

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