Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were no changes to report today.
TODAY’S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ANZ has followed Westpac in cutting savings account rate
term deposit offers to savers. Today’s reductions by NZ’s largest bank range from -15 to -25 bps.
FINALLY, THE PROMISED RISE
There were 2,824 new dwelling consents issued nationally in July 2015, up +24% compared with July 2014, Statistics New Zealand said today. This is the highest number of new dwellings consented in a month since March 2005, boosted by apartments and townhouses, flats, and units. The growth in Auckland was +31%. It was even higher in the Waikato, up +40%.
Business confidence remains on the ropes, hitting a new six-year low in August, according to the ANZ business confidence survey out today. Key survey indicators that more closely correlate to GDP also weakened, with several at their lowest levels since 2009. Agriculture is the main laggard. ANZ counsels that “we need to keep chicken little in the coop’, then goes on the point out “Domestically, we have a nasty combination of a king hit to dairy incomes, receding impetus from Christchurch construction, and question marks over the sustainability of the Auckland property market. Those are large voids for other parts of the economy to fill and keep the economic house propped up.”
Borrowing for housing rose strongly in July, up a net +$1.17 bln since June, and +$11.6 bln year-on-year. This is the fastest growth rate since mid 2008. Collectively, all banks hold mortgages worth $204.6 bln. Having noted that, borrowing for business and agriculture is growing faster than for housing. And for the first time in over a year, consumer debt is growing slower again than for housing debt.
FATTER BANK ACCOUNTS
But all this debt growth is churning through bank accounts. The money supply is up +9.3%. And household bank accounts have grown +11.9% to $143.5 bln (or $146 bln if you include our foreign currency accounts) up $15.2 bln in a year. That is the fastest growth rate since May 2009. (Observant readers will have noticed that household bank accounts are growing faster than household borrowing in both percentage and dollar terms.)
WHOLESALE RATES UNMOVED
Swap rates are pretty much unchanged today, unmoved by either the building consent data or the fall in business confidence. However the 90 day bank bill rate is still tracking higher, up +2 bps to 2.92%. It has held at about 2.9% now for more than two weeks.
NZ DOLLAR SLIPS
The NZ dollar rose today on the building consent data, and then gave all of that up and more on the decline in business confidence. It is now at 64.2 USc, a tick below 90 AUc, and the Trade Weighted Index (TWI-5) is now down at 68.7. This is the lowest the TWI-5 has been since December 2001. Check our real-time charts here.
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