A review of things you need to know before you go home Friday; no rate changes, soft dairy prices, strong NZGB tender, new political poll, Canterbury refresh, swaps stable, NZD up

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today.

DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either. But UDC has advised that their term deposits are normally available again, without the recent special restriction.

CAPPING THE GROWTH
The latest dairy price monitoring by the USDA for Oceania was out today and showed continuing good rises for butter, but a bit of softness for WMP and cheddar cheese. Softer USD prices in conjunction with a stronger currency are combining to halt the rises in local currency returns.

STRONG DEMAND, LOWER YIELDS
The latest Government bond tender went off today strongly. The tender for $150 mln 2037’s brought $502 mln of bids and a coverage ratio of 3.3x. The weighted average yield achieved was 3.28% and this is the lowest for the year. (This same bond yielded 4.01% in January, 2017.)

UP BUT NOT SAFE
The latest political poll out today saw the National Party extend its lead following the Budget. But this polling has come before both major parties stubbed their toes; for National by their youngest MP in strife over how he handled an electorate matter, and for Labour being caught sailing close to the wind with ‘unpaid’ immigrant worker ‘interns’.

PHASE TWO
The official Canterbury development strategy got a refresh today. The Government has spent more than $15 bln on the earthquake rebuild including the Kaikoura component. But as rebuild activity levels off, new targets are being set based on the telecommunications, primary industries, education, tourism and business sectors.

POPULATION MILESTONES
Australia’s population reached 24.5 mln today. (NZ’s population will reach 4.8 mln in less than a month – we reckon we will be at that level on July 19, 2017.) So Australia is now 5.1 times larger on a population basis than New Zealand. Sydney’s population is 5.1 mln (20.8% of the national total). Melbourne’s population is 4.4 mln (18.0%). Auckland’s population is just over 1.4 mln (29.9%).

TABLES TURNED
Update
: This is what can happen when housing supply rises (or exceeds) demand. Buyers benefit.

TAKING ON GOLIATHS
Of course, none of this economic stuff actually matters. Far more important are the two big sporting events on this weekend. TeamNZ (4.8 mln supporters) vs Oracle USA (326.5 mln), and the mighty All Blacks (backed by 4.8 mln) vs the B+I Lions (65.5 plus 4.7 mln = 70.2 mln).

WHOLESALE RATES LITTLE CHANGED
There has been a little slippage at both ends of the curve today. The one year rate is down by -1 bp today, and rates for 5, 7 and 10 years are also down by -1 bp. The same slippage has happened to the 90 day bank bill rate and its -1 bp drop has taken it back to 1.95%.

NZ DOLLAR FIRMS
The NZD is again marginally firmer than at this time yesterday at 72.7 USc. On the cross rates, against the Aussie we are stronger too at 96.2 AUc, and we are up to 65.1 euro cents. That all takes the TWI-5 bnack up to 77.1. And bitcoin is up +2.5% on the day to US$2,779.

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